[요약리뷰] 김작가TV - 여전한 부동산논란, 얼음공장

 

 

 

### 한글 요약

이 영상은 한국 부동산 시장의 현재 상황과 전망에 대해 다룹니다. 영상에서는 특히 수도권 부동산 시장이 앞으로 더 격차가 커질 것이라고 예측하며, 무주택자들은 빠르게 집을 사는 것이 좋다고 강조합니다. 청약의 경쟁률이 높아지고 있으며, 전세 사기 등으로 인해 전세보다 집을 사는 것이 더 안전하다는 의견도 나옵니다. 또한, 지방의 부동산 시장은 상대적으로 침체되어 있으며, 지방의 자산가들이 서울로 이동하여 똘똘한 한 채를 선호하는 경향이 있다는 점이 지적됩니다.

### English Summary

This video discusses the current state and future prospects of the South Korean real estate market. The video emphasizes that the gap between those who own homes and those who do not will widen, especially in the Seoul metropolitan area. It is suggested that non-homeowners should consider buying a home as soon as possible. The video also discusses the increasing competition for housing and the risks associated with renting, including rental scams. Furthermore, the regional real estate markets in South Korea are relatively stagnant, with many wealthy individuals from these areas preferring to buy properties in Seoul instead of their local regions.

 

지방 부동산 완전 뒤집혔다, 부자들이 다 '여기 집' 사고 있다 (얼음공장) - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKoqalXh3JU

Transcript:
(00:00) 수도권 기준 했을 때 지금 무주택자 일주택자 분들 어떻게 해야 되는 거죠 무조건 사야죠 이제 앞으로 갈수록 집을 가진 자와 못 가진 자의 격차 더 심해질 거예요 지금 전월세는 좋은 선택이라고 생각하고 있잖아요 그리고 청약도 갈수록 당첨이 어려워지지 [음악] 거예요 저 요즘에 또 청약이 굉장히 뜨겁던 시세차 기대할 수 있는 아파트 청약으로 인해 청약 효에 예상되기 시간이 뭐 40시간 등 접속 지원까지 벌어졌다고 하는데 이런 현상은 좀 어떻게 보 그냥 이제 받아들이고 있어요 한국은 이렇게 돌아가는 국가다 그니까 로또 그니까 아파트를 투자하는 거는 나쁘지만 로또를 바라는 거는 괜찮은 세상이 돼 버린 거죠 이거에 대해서 몇 가지 좀 말씀을 드릴게요 로토 청역이 만들어진 이유 자체가 사람들은 이제 이걸 생각을 안 하는 거예요 왜 로또 청약일 로또 청약이 분명히이 돈이 예를 들어서 20억 로또 청약이 요번에 나왔잖아요 말이 20억이 크잖아요 엄청난 거죠 예 그 당첨되신 분은 사실 여러분이 전 이거 댓글당 여러 댓글이 달리겠지만 그 솔직히 그
(01:03) 20억 당첨되신 분이 본인은 절대 그렇게 말씀 안 하시겠지만 그 많은 분들이 주장하는 기준을 통해서 무슨 노력을 하셨는데요 무슨 노동을 하셨고 무슨 자격증을 따셨어요 노력을 한 건 절대 아니지 그러니까 뭘 하셨냐고요 제 말은 그냥 당첨이 되신 거잖아요 물론 그분은 내가이 가점을 만들기 위해 블라블라블라 그이 잔금을 내기 위해 블라블라 하겠지만 로또 청약이란 말이에요 그럼 그 20억은 어디서 오는 거 이걸 아무도 안 따지는데요 그거는 땅주인 조합들 테 붙어 오는 거예 왜냐면 20억이면 분양가를 올렸어도 된다는 뜻이잖아요 그러니까 분양가가 분양가 상한제가 먹은 곳들이 입지가 좋은 곳들 중에서 거기가 지금 전부 다로도 청약이 된 거란 말이에요 그러면 기존의 땅 주인들 조합원들의 돈을 뺏어서 수분양자 테 주는 거예요 왜냐면은 기존의 땅주인 조합 정비 사업의 주체는 한국 사회에서 악마고 그리고 무주택자 청액 넣어야 될 때는 무주택자는 지켜줘야 되는 보호 대상이니까요 돈이 욜로 이동하는게음 정의로운 거니까 이렇게 하는 거예요 그리고 저도 이제 가끔 이제 상담을
(02:04) 해 드리면 전세사기 당한 분들 심각해요 지금이 전세 사기는 앞으로 터질게 한참 남았거든요 여러분 그리고 이거는 여러분이 조심한다고 피할 수 있는게 아니에요 돈 갖고 나르면 끝이란 말이에요 근데 제가 해봤거든요 잠깐요 전세 사기가 좀 문제가 있으니까 집을 사셔 근데 아예 그냥 전세사기 터진 거는 아 여러분 생각이 맞아요 전세 사기꾼이 얘 얘네가 죽일 놈들이죠 얘는 잡아 쳐 넣어야죠 얘네는 뭐 얘기할 같이 인간이 아니에요 전 그 얘기를 하고 있는게 아니란 말이에요 전세 사기 리스크에서 벗어날 수 없으니까 월세로 가시거나 집을 사라라고 말씀을 드렸는데 그 이거는 전부 다 다 욕기 도배가 돼요 뭐 누 띄워서 네가 탈출하려 그러냐네 집을 팔려 그러냐 이런 얘기밖에 없고 그럼 전세에 사기 당한 분들은 전세로 살라고 얘기한 분들은 아예 책임이 1일도 없고 지금 얘기해도 억지로 들리실 거예요 전세로 살아도 된다 전세로 살아라고 밀어붙인 국가나 사람들은 전 혀 1도 아예 연관이 없고 전세 사기친 사람이 100% 잘못이고 집사라 그런 사람은 악마고
(03:05) 이렇게 돌아간단 말이에요 근데 전세로 이제 사시는 분들이 왜 그렇게 사시냐 청약권 지키기 위해서요 제가 상담을 해 보면 청약 하나 그거 왜냐면 인생 역전할 길이 없잖아요 로토 청약이자아요 그거 하나 보고 빌라에서 버틴 건데 전세금을 잃어버렸다고 말씀들을 많이 하세요 당연히 잘못됐죠 근데 제 말은 이게 한국이 이렇게 돌아간다고 한국이 일부 주택은 사면 안 되게 만들어 놨어요 매수하면 안 돼요 청약권이 날아갑니다 일부 아파트는 사도 돼요 에세 파킹 시세 상승이 예상이 되니까 아까 말씀하신 지금 나홀로 상승하고 있는 지역들이 여기 해당이 돼요 얘네는 청약이 아니어도 사면 믿음이 가거든요 근데 나머지 집은 청약이 차단이 나은 거예요 그래서 이거에 대해서는 저는 부동산 시장을 좋아하는 사람 입장에서는 대단히 잘못됐다 정말 망국으로 가는 길이다 얘기하고 싶고요 저는 당연히 청약 받을 분들이나 무주택자 분들이나이 분들한테 해당이 안 되는데 시장 측면에서 말씀드리는 거예요 조합의 돈을 뺏어서 수분양자 테 주는 거잖아요 그럼 이렇게 되면 제가 늘 말씀드렸지만 맨 마지막
(04:06) 결론은 하나예요 공급 스톱 제값을 못 받게 하는 거잖아요 로토 청약이 어디서이 어이 돈이 어디서 나오겠어요 어디선가는 나올 거 아니에요 이거는 땅 주인한테 뺏는 건데 땅 주인들이 분양가를 마음대로 못 한다 그럼 더 이상 안 짓는 거예요 그래서 공급량이이 모양 이꼴이 난 거거든요 그러니까 저는 일정 기간 동안에 일정 사람들한테 이득이 가고 일정 사람들한테 표가 가겠지만 장기적으로 봤을 때 시장을 좀 망치고 있다라고 생각을 해요 저 어떻게 바뀌야 되는 거죠 그거 청약이 너무 지금 복잡하게 돼 있어서 제가 한마디로이 정의 내리기 어렵겠지만 분양가 자율화를 시켜서 분양가를 자율화 시키면이 청약의 메리트가 확 줄어들어요 잠깐이 그러니까 이런 거예요 분양가 자유가 근데 집값 상승을 막 엄청 부추기게요 그러니까가데 일정 기간 동안 그렇죠 작가님이랑 저랑 라이벌의 어떤 시행사 시공사 그럼 분양가 자율화 시켰어요 분양가 자율화 시킨 데가 언제냐면 김대중 정권 요 부동산시장이 너무 침체가 되고 지을 건설사가 없으니까 분양가를 자율화 시켜 버렸어요 그때
(05:05) 난리도 아니었거든요 그럼 둘이 무한 경쟁을 할 거 아니에요 그러다가 이제 가게를 날 미분양 날 때까지 미분양이 악성 미분양이 날 때까지 그러니까 근데 일정 기간 동안에는 당연히이 한국이란이 자산 시장에서 한동안 부작용이 있겠죠 근데 장기간으로 봤을 때는 주택 시장이 넘칠 때까지 공급이 되겠죠 근데이 일정 기간 동안을 버틸 수가 없는 거죠 사람들이 너무 싫어하실테니까 그리고 청약의 메리트는 확 떨어져요 왜 면 분양가가 비싸잖아요 그니까 이런 거예요 제가 설명할 때 제가 분양을 했는데 저희 시행사에서 경쟁률이 뭐 한 500대 1이 나온 거예요 그냥 순삭 완판이 됐어요 그 작가님은 경쟁률이 한 2.
(05:45) 2대 1이 나왔어요 그 완판 때까지 3개월이 걸렸어요 시행사 입장에서 누가 잘한 거예요 너무 싸게 팔았다는 뜻이잖아요 아 너무 싸게 팔았으니까 이쪽이 이거는 이거는 망한 거죠 잘못한 거죠 이거는 세 달 동안 녹여 팔았으면 훨씬 비싸게 팔 수 있었던 거예요 작가님이 2.2 1이 나왔다 3개월 만에 완판을 때렸다는 거는 시장에서 좀 비싼 고민되는 거죠 어 그래도 신축이 필요한 수요가 윗돌을 내면서까지 살 때까지 버틴 거고 저는 헐값에 덤핑 한 거예요 그러니까 이게 이거를 원한단 말이에요 사람들은 왜냐면 청약을 받아야 되니까 이해하죠 맞는데 이게 지속되다 보면은 마진이 안 남단 말이에요 그러니까 공급이 안 되는데 안 되죠 그니까 작가님 말 말씀대로 해도 부작용이 있고 제 말대로 부작용이 있는데 저는 장기적으로 보고 싶거든요 장기적으로 어차피 제가 장기적으로 보자 말이 여러분한테 와 닿으려면 공급 부족 존으로 들어가는 25 26 27까지가 보셔야 돼요 근데 예를 들어서 26 27을 지나가는데 공급이 그거밖에 안 되는데도 시장이 잘 돌아간다 그럼 사실은 제 의견은 고칠 필요가 있다고
(06:47) 생각해요 그래서 저는 25 26 27 시장을 되게 예의주시하고 있어요 자 그리고 대출 아까 얘기해 주셨는데 주요 시중의 가게 대출 잔액이 한 달세 뭐 6조 넘게 굉장히 많이 증가했다고 하더라고요지가 상승 기대감대 수유가 폭증해서 증가한 거 같은데 이런 증가세는 앞으로도 계속 유지가 될까요이 예민한 질문이다 이거 얘기할 때 제일 많이 욕 먹는 것 중에 하나여서 저는 가게 대출이 일정 내에서는 늘어나는게 정상이라고 보거든요네 자본주의가 신용으로 돌아가는데 사람들이 뭔가 해야 되잖아요 예를 들어서 사람들은 주로 일자리를 찾아요 일자리를 만들 생각은 안 하거든요 그러니까 다수가 생각했을 때는 좋은 일자리만 있으면 땡이지 나머진 솔직히 관심 받기란 말이에요 근데 작가님도 이제 뭐 하시는 일이 다양하겠지만 내가 새로운 일자리를 만든다라는 생각을 해봐요 일자리 한 열개 만들 거예요 그럼 대출이 필요하죠 그러니까 이것도 마찬가지로 건설도 일자리를 만드는 거고 뭔가를 만들어 내려면 대출이 필요하단 말이에요 그렇죠 근데이 주택 시장도 마찬가지예요 그러니까 대출을 일으켜서
(07:48) 뭔가 한다는 거는 뭔가 성장 방향이에요 물론 이거 대출을 못 갔거나 사건 사고가 터지면 역작용이 나겠지만 너무 무리하면 안 되겠지만 한국은 사람들이 자산을 많이 가지고 있어요 자산 보유율이 되게 높은 가거든요 그래서 저는 가게 부채가 늘어나는 거 자체에 대해서 알러지를 느낄 필요는 없다고 생각을 해요 가게 부채가 건전하게 늘어나면 된다고 생각을 하는데 제 기준에서는 지금 정부가 펼치고 있는 사실 해매는 대출 규제를 안 해요 대출 규제는 각 은행에서 하는 거예요 여러분 그 대출 사고 터지면 어디가 망하겠어요 은행이 망한다 말이에요 그럼 어디가 규제해야 되겠어요 은행이 해야 된단 말이에요 근데 사람들은 은행이나 시공사 시행사 이런 데는 전부 다 뭔가 사기꾼들 비슷하게 보시는 면이 없지 않아 있어요 그래서 자체적으로 규제의 시스템을 안 믿으세요 정부가 한단 말이에요 근데 정부가 지금 저는 충분히 하고 있다고 생각하거든요 전는 세계적으로 이렇게 개개인별로 이렇게까지 통제해서 대출을 해 주지 않아요 담보 물건이 있도 그런데도 규제하지아요 그러면 사실 전이 정도면
(08:53) 이대로 증가해도 큰 문제 없다고 봐요 저는 자 그리고 아까 전에 말씀하신 대로 이제 특히 강남 상구 같은 는 경우는 집값이 굉장히 뭐 마용 선도 마찬가지고 굉장히 많이 올라고 굉장히 많이 비싸잖아요 근데 앞으로도 이제 더 오를 수도 있고 뭐 떨어질 수도 있긴 할 텐데 많은 분들이 주택 가격이 너무 비싸다 우리 서수도 감당할 수 없는 가격이다 이런 얘기 많이 하시잖아요 그 서울에 주택 구입이 담주 피야 뭐 이런 얘기 많이 하시는데 이런 집값에 대해서 좀 어떻게 보세요 비싸죠 그래서 떨어져야 된다 이런 이야기 많잖아요 진짜 합당한 얘기죠 저도 거긴 동감을 하죠 집 저렴하면 좋은데 현실이 역사적으로 그렇게 지금 굴러 가지를 않잖아요 그러다 보니까 이게 집값이 떨어지려면 예전에도 다큐에도 나왔었는데 어떤 한 어머님이 이제 반포 주공을 가지고 계신데 집값이 너무 올라서 난이 집을 가지고 있지만 내 아이들은 여기를 떠나야 만한다 내 아이들이 좋아하는 동네인 반포에서 떠나면 된다데 거기 댓글이 달렸어요 뭐라고요 그럼 아줌마가 싸게 파시라 그렇게 안 하실
(09:50) 거잖아요 아 어 근데 저는 그 댓글 다신 분의 마음도 이해가요 그까 댓글 다신 분은 물론 그 아주머니 입장도 저 이해 가는데 댓글다는 분들도 아니 그래도 반풀 가지고 있는 사람이 말을 하면 뭔가 약간 약골인 거 같기도 하고 그러니까 좀 왜냐면 이번 그 시장 상승력을 온몸으로 누리신 분이잖아요 근데 그 아주머니 입장에서 본인이 뭐 한 건 아니거든요 그니까 두 분다 아무 죄가 없죠 그리고 집값 저도 비싸다고 생각하고요 그리고 내려가서 아무래도 사람들이 요새 너무 힘들잖아요 누구나 자기 주택을 맞는 형태로 초이스함에 있어서 그리고 집을 살 때 조급할 필요 없고 세 월세를 살면서 걱정할 필요가 없고 이게 맞다고 저는 생각을 해요 저는 어떤 타입이냐 약간 개인적인 얘긴데 제가 쭉 살아오면서 현실 부정을 해서 좋을게 없더라고요 제가 이렇게 됐으면 좋겠다 이랬으면 좋겠어 예를 들어서 제가 좋아하는 이성이 있는데 나는 심성이 착하고 나쁜 짓을 한 적이 없으니까 나랑 사귀어 주고 결혼해 줬으면 좋겠다고 해봤자 그 여성분은 분명히 멋진 남성을 만나셔야 되고
(10:53) 그럴 자격이 있단 말이에요 근데 그 멋지단 남성도 사실은 분석해 보면 조건이에요 키몇 뭐 어느 동네 어느 뭐를 타고 외모 예 얘기하면은 상스러워 보이지만 그렇잖아요 뭐 다 합쳐진 거죠 예 불편한 부분이지만 집값이 정책도 있고 정치도 있고 앞으로의 공급 그니까이 시장 자체가 지금 이렇게 돌아가고 있고 더 큰 문제가 있어요 지금 이렇게 비싸고 감당이 어려운데도 사는 애들이 있다는게 제일 큰 문제예요 살 애들이 남아 있다는게 문제예요 더 큰 문제는요 지금은 대출까지 막혀 있는 는데도 산다는 거예요 너무 큰 문제예요 제가 상담사 중에 기억이 남는게 포제스 한강 광진구에 포제스 한강이 평당 1억에 분양을 했어요 평당 1억이 평당 1억 광진 군인데 완판 예 수강생분이 상담을 하신 거예요이거나 자격 되는데 분양 넣어도 되냐 사실 거기 상담을 했다는게 뭐냐면 현금 몇십억이 있는 분이란 뜻이거든요 그것도 신혼이 젊어요 그래 가지고 나 이거 여러 개로 쪼개서 투자해야 되냐 너처럼 진짜 한번 나도 한번 가보고 싶다 아니면 이거 분양 받아야 되냐 이거 분양 받으면 솔직히
(11:57) 많이 묶인다 해서 제가 그랬거든요 선생님 같은 분이 제가 갔던 길을 왜 가냐 그 위험천만하고 어려운 길을 이거 분양 받으셔 내가 봤을 때는 이게 시간이 걸릴지 몰라도 이게 완판이 된다 왜 그러냐면 선생님 같은 분들이 원하는 주거에 대한 공급이 너무 부족하다 한국은 부자란 단어가 들어가면 알러지가 생기거든요 부자들을 위한 주거 시설 공급에 굉장히 보수적인게 한국이란 말이에요 그러니까 부자들이 원하는 데가 성수동이 지금 이미 그건 제가 의견이 아니라 수요에서 증명이 됐잖아 수동 한남동 그죠 완벽하죠 들이 원하는 동네는 지금 공급이 더 있어야 돼요 지금 신고가 행렬이 거긴 상승 중 맞아요 심각해요 지금 그것도 아 현금으로 사세요 몇 100 100억 200억 요즘 하이엔드 주거용이 가격이 엄청나게 오 가면은 아이 다른 세상 얘기해요 진짜 다른 세상 얘기예요이 예를 들어서 비슷해요 집이 비슷한데 그니까 우리가 생각하는 우리가 생각하는 가성비가 비슷한 그 단지의 동호 수인데 부자이자 어떤 조건이나 개인적 취향 때문에 얘가 더 마음에 드는 거 a b 중에 호가가 2억이
(13:01) 차이가나요 그럼 일반인이면 가성비가 비슷한데 2억을 더주고 이걸 산다는 건요 이건 사치에요 근데 제가 할 얘기 뻔히 아시죠 사요 아 진짜로 사요 진짜로 히 이제 반포나들목 한강뷰가 비싼 이유는요 좋아서가 아니에요 이걸 부자들이 좋아요 그 아 그니까 제가 직접들은 거란 말이에요 의견이 비슷해요 거기서 오는 성공감 내려다보는 상강 트로피 그리고 약간이 부자들이 생각 사색 이런 거 좋아하세요 뭔가 차이는 있을 거 아니에요이 분들은 여러분이 들었을 때 조금 불편하실 수 있겠지만 막 바쁘게 노동만 하시는 분들에 비해서이 분들은 생각하고 기분에 따라서 결정 하나에 의해서 몇 억 몇십억이 왔다 갔다 하잖아요 우리 인정할 거 인정합시다 그럼 중요한데이 고민과 그걸 어떤 기분 어디서 하느냐 이게 자기
(14:04) 중요하대요 그래서 인테리어 층 동향 그리고 미신 풍수 이거를 어차피 결정 한 번이 몇 억인데 하신단 말이에요 근데이 사람들이 어느 순간부터 한강 주를 선호를 하는데이 사람들이 끌어올린 거예요 아니 솔직히 한강 보이나 안 보이나 솔직히 바빠 죽겠는데 뭘 한강을 보고 있어요 근데 거기 몇억을 왜 태우냐 이분들 그리 마켓을 만든 거죠 실제로 가면 그렇게 많이 보지도 않는 많이 안 봐요 그리고 옛날 한강주 인기 없었던 거 아시죠 음기 그리고 햇빛 비침 그리고 앞에 도로 가잖아요 인기 별로 없었어요 진짜 사실 옛날에는 근데 지금은 세상이 변한 거죠 부자들이 좋아하는 거에 웃돈이 묻게 돼 있는 거 같아요 그리고 이게 공급이 넘치면 되는데 한국부 보이는 좋은 아파트가 지어봤자 몇 개나 짓겠습니다 몇 개 못 찍겠죠 그렇게 되는 거예요 자 그리고 올해 9월 미국에서 이제 금리 인나 할 거잖아요 거의 확실한 지금 가능성으로 불리고 있는데 한국 부동산 시장에도 영향이 좀 있을까요 아니 이미 이런 것들이 반영되고 있는 걸까요 저는 의견을 바꾸질 않아요
(15:00) 저는 왜냐면 전는 의견을 바꾸려면 제 부동산을 보는 이론을 바꿔야 돼요 그때그때 편승하는 걸 굉장히 싫어해요 왜냐면 전 제가 제 투자를 해야 되니까 그래 전 발등이 불 떨어졌잖아 금리가 0.2 숏이 아아 숏으로 뭐 올라가든 컷을 치든간에 0.2 5면 시장에서 소화되는데 한 3개월 걸려요 그게 제가 갖고 있는 통계 든요 그런데 이게 단시간 내에 3개월짜리 소화도 되기 전에 요번에 일곱배 올라갔단 말이에요 0.5에서 저기 3.5 아지 미국은 22배 올라갔어요 이게 붕괴가 돼 버렸단 말이에요 근데 요번에 어쨌건 내려도 0.25 0.5요 정도잖아요 그러면 시장에서 좋게는 반응 하겠지만 전 거꾸로도 마찬가지예요 부동산 시장이 엄청난 호재다 저 이렇게 보지 않아요 부동산 시장은 사람들의 수요가 얼만큼 뭉쳐 움직이느냐 어디로 향한 애가 중요해요 지금은 여전히 전국으로 봤을 때 사람들이 여전히 월세 선호하세요 그리고 이제야 전세 매매로 좀 오고 있는 와중이 때문에 지금 시장의 흐름상 금리가 내려가게 되면 좋은 반응은 있겠죠 왜냐면 때까지 금리
(16:00) 때문에 눌려 있던 수요가 있으니까 하지만 그렇다고 이제 금리가 내려가니까 부동산이 뻥 이거 아니에요 그것 때문에 그렇게 보고 있는게 아니에요 자 그렇다면 수도권 기준 했을 때 지금 무주택자 일주택자 분들 어떻게 해야 되는 거죠 무조건 사야죠 어차피 뭐 욕 먹을 거는 각오하고 말씀드리는 거 아니까 저 무조건 사야 된다고 생각해요 이제 앞으로 갈수록 집을 가진 자와 못 가진 자의 격차 더 심해질 거예요 어차피 왜냐면 저는이 기간조차에도 내집 말은 하셨던 분들한테 지금 감사인사를 받고 있거든요 여전히 힘든 분들 때는 마음이 엄청 무거워요 네 근데 뭐이 사람이 그때그때 신의 영역이요 미래가 근데 제 의견이니까 전 지금은 무주택자는 빨리 내집 말은 하시면 좋다고 생각을 하고 있고요 지금 전월세는 좋은 선택이라고 생각하고 있잖아요 그리고 청약도 갈수록 당첨이 어려워지거나 아타야 되는 건가요 상급지 갈아타는 거 지금 어려워요 잠깐 왜냐면 아까 우리가 지금 시장을 보면은 예를 들면 되게 편해요 성북구의 집을 가지고 계신 분이 지금 잠실로 가고 싶다고 쳐요 성북구가 안
(16:57) 팔리나요 안 팔리는게 아니라 안 올랐죠 음 그니까 내 아파트는 회복이 하나도 안 됐는데 성공 지금 되고 있어요 근데 그럼 양주 내가 내 집에 회복이 하나도 안 됐는데 회복이 이미 된 데를 산다 그러 이게 돈이 안 돼요 지금 상급지 갈아타기가 되게 힘든 구간이 그래서이 타이밍이 일단은 좀 한 뭉치가 넘어갔어요 근데 상업지로 가는 거 할 수 있을 때 하는게 좋은데 이게 가성비가 좋냐는 별도의 문제예요 제 지금은 사실 여러분이 여건이 된다면 일시적 1가 위 주택이 좋아요 첫 번째 주택을 사고 1년이 넘은 다음에 두 번째 주택을 사면 되거든요 진력이 전략이 더 좋고 어디를 갖고 있냐에 따라 다르겠지만 저 요새 이거 고민 상담 안 그러다가 올해 한 3월 달 이후 5월 달부터 폭주해요는 정도가 아니에요이 고민이 근데 제가 말씀드렸지만이 얘기를 계속 하고 싶은 거예요 여러분이 지금 2 3억 기본 2 3억 싸게 살 수 있던 시장은 다지나 보내시고 싹 다지나 보내시고 이제 와서 반응하시는 거 보면은 전 이번에도 수요가 뭉칠 거라고 생각해요 시간이 지나서 아 변하지가 않아요
(17:56) 이거는 제 그렇게 많이 말씀을 드리고 고 부탁을 드렸는데 나가서 메이도 인한테 그냥 큰소리 치면서 야 사 줄게 내가네 집 사 줄테니까 내 얼마까지 해줄 수 있는데 마음에 안 들면 바로 옆집으로 간다 이게 되던 시장에서 지금은 거꾸로예요 예를 들어서 당장 한남 시만 가도 메 도인한 가서 깎아 달라면 가세요 사장님 전화하지 마세요 이래요 진짜로 진짜 이거 확인하세요 전화하셔서 그니까 이런 시기가 됐단 말이에요 그래서 지금은 갈아타기 하실 때 가성비를 한번 따져 보셔야 되고 그게 아니라면 가고 2주택 한번 생각해 보시면 어떨까 싶어요 그러면 수도권에서는 무 주택자 분들 어떤 지역을 사야 되는 건가요 본인이 감당할 수 있는 선에서는 최대한 상업지로 가는게 좋은 건가요 그것도 중요한데 아직 회복이 덜 된 지역 거기서 이제 회복이 기대되는 지역 이게 제가 하는 일이잖아요 이것 때문에 정말 미친짓 다니고 있는데네 어딘가요 많 미친짓 다니니까 아 지금 가성비 나오고 동대문구 동대문구 동대문구 서울은 아직 조금 가생 강동구 강동구 메인 말고요 메인은
(18:57) 그리고 강서구 그리고 전 나중에 성북구 노동강도 괜찮다고 생각해요 경기도에서는 경기도요양원 의왕시 아니면 뭐 조금 멀리 보시면 뭐 안산이나 시흥요 정도까지 좀 멀리 보면 그런데 나머지 지역은 사실 전 지금은 광명시도 괜찮아 보이더라고요 광명시도 다 그렇게 여러분이 생각처럼 회복한게 아니고 광명시가 좀 지역이 많아요 광명 위쪽에 사거리 광명동 철산 한 소화 일찍 이렇게 있거든요 그런데 그런 대들이 앞으로 조금 오를 수 있는 여시가 많이 있는 거 같다네 조금이 아니라 회복만 해도 얼마예요 회복만 해도 많은 분들이 지금 시장 엄청 복잡하게 생각하시는데요 전 복잡하게 보고 있지 않거든요 어디를 어떻게 가성비 있게 접근하나 그러면 된다고 생각을 해요 자 지금 집값 상승이 아니라 25 6에도 하락 얘기하신 분들도 있잖아요 혹시 그럼 그분들은 뭘 좀 만약에 틀린다면 뭘 좀 놓친다고 생각하세요 놓쳤다 그보다는 아마 보시는 관점이 다르지 않으실까요네 제가 이번에 사람은 위기나 어떤 시행 착오를 겪으면 배우는게 있어야 된다고 저 생각 하거든요 저는 이제 어떤 스피커
(20:01) 인플루언서 분들 얘기는 다양하게 듣기로 했고 하락을 주장하시는 분들은 그만한 이유가 있다고 생각을 해요 그래서 놓쳤다 아마 저랑 시장 보는 관점 자체가 완전히 다르지 않을까요 만약에 25 6년에 사실 또 시장이 떨어질 수도 있잖아요 그럼요 떨어지게 되면 대표님은 뭐가 틀려서 떨어지게 될까요 수요 사람들이 집을 주어도 안 사는 거죠 아니면은 정부가 나서서 대출 자체를 완전히 빠 그라트이는 거예요 아 이분들이 만약에 놓치면 저는 월세 저는 예전에 제테크 콘서트 있잖아요 그거 가서 얘기한 적이 기사 남아 있어요 박제돼 있는데 이제 1년 넘은 거 같아요 집코노미 같은데요 제 생각에 거기서 저는 지금 시장의 주인공은 월세라고 말씀을 드렸거든요 그니까 아파트 시장이 매매량 전세랑 월세로 나눠져 있어요 소비자는 세 개 중에 하나를 선택하시면 되거든요 근데 월세가 너무 많이 올랐어요 지금 전국적으로 월세는 계속 올라가고 있어요 서울은 지난 달 월세 상승률이 아마 역대 1이었습니다 거예요 역대 1위 1.
(20:57) 1 엄청나죠이 월세가 작가님도 아실 거예요 우리가 다양하게 주거 형태를 살아 보셨잖아요 저도 그렇고 월세는 올려 준다 안 준다이 문제가 아니에요 낼 수 있냐 없냐의 문제지 당장에 최강 가게 말씀드리면 여러분이 당장에 지금 월세 1200을 낼 수 있는 건 아니란 말이에요 그렇죠 근데 어떻 하시겠어요 그럼 다른 형태를 취한다 말이야요 다른 형태가 전세 매매가 될 수 있는데 이게 생각보다 싸다 그러면 선택을 할 거란 말이에요 그니까 요런 식으로 아마 월세 부분을 놓치고 계신게 아닐까 근데 제가 말씀드리는 거는 만약에 이대로 가다 월세 시장까지 잠잠해진다 그럼 뭔가 주택시장네 전체 수급을 놓고 봤을 때 수요가 제가 생각하지 못한 것만큼 약한 거죠 절대 집을 안 산다거나 다른 주거 형태로 만족을 한다거나 그럼 정부는 뭐가 급해서 지금 이렇게 날뛰고 있을까요 뭔가 데이터가 있겠죠 이분들 그래서 월세 국민들은 작가이 왜 분노하지 않을까요 시장이 이렇게 됐는데 옛날에 한국에 아파트 월세가 정말 쌌거든요 지금은 이제 두 배가 넘게 올랐는데 월세는 분노하지 않아요 매매가
(21:53) 하락했을 때는 매수 시장에 아무 관심도 없고 거래량 봤을 때는 아예 사람들이 기웃거리지 않았는데 좀 올라간다 그랬는데 대부분의 아파트가 올라가지 않는데도 국민들은 대놓 하고 있어요 정부는 발등에 불이 떨어졌고 참 신기한 거 같아요 제가 봤을 때 이런 부분 이런 분위기 이런 것들을 놓친게 아닐까 부동산 또 시공 시행 이런 쪽 또 관련해서 일을 하고 계시니까 부동산 PF 문제 여전히 남아 있나요 남아 있어요 요거 뭐 심각하게 터질 수 있는 건가요 PF요 잠깐이 원래 이제 심각했어요 왜냐면 시장 자체가 붕괴가 됐잖아요 근데 이제 저는 약간 이거 독특한 관점을 가지고 있어요 제가 이제 시행을 하는 사업을 하는 사람인 동시에 투자자이기도 하잖아요 문제가 사람들이 다 인지가 되고 대비를 오래 하면요 안 터지더라고요 예를 들어서 우크라이나 전쟁 파울 아저씨의 뒤통수 전 뒤통수 왜냐면 파울 아저씨가 분명히 나중에 올릴 거라 하셨는데 갑자기 너무 빨리 올리셨어요 제가 봤을 때 모든 사람이 이거 동감을 하시더라고요 그러니까 데비가 안 된 블랙스완이 터져나오면 모르겠지만는
(22:50) 정부가 너무 오랫동안 데뷔를 했고 그리고 우리가 너무인지를 하고 있거든요 그리고 오래된 고질병이 하고요 어떻게 보면은 그래서 데이터는 심각한게 맞아요 근데 아마 어 여기저기가 터져도 완충 효과를 통해서 잘 넘어갈거다 이게 지금 주장이 아니라 뉴스에서로 시장이 붕괴된다는 주장이 완전 남발을 할 때도 전 이렇게 말씀드렸어요 근데 결국 보세요 뭐가 터졌죠 PF 문제가 터지면 심각한 건 뭐냐면은 건설사가 아니에요 걔네 망해도 돼요 여러분 은행이 문제예요 얘네랑 엮여 있는 증권 사랑 은행 얘네가 터지면서 연세 도산이 문제거든요이 연세 도산지점 있어요 이명박 정권때 이명박 정권때 그래서 은행까지 정리를 시켜 하는데도 살아남은게 한국 경제예언 번지지도 못하고 있어요 그러면 과거 역사를 봤을 때도 정부가 지금 피프 문제를 해결해 주는게 아니에요 안 죽게 그냥 인공 호흡기만 되고 있는 거죠 그리고 죽으면 안 된다고 이제 계속 겁박을 넣고 있는 거죠 그러니까 저는 사실 심각한 걸인지는 하고 있지만 터질 거라고 생각하고 있지 않다는 거죠 터질 것 같지 않다 저 지금까지 그금
(23:52) 이제 수도권 위주로 좀 많이 여쭤 봤으면 지방도 여쭤봐야 되는데 5대 강력 시 부산 울산 대구 광주 대전 세종 예 현상은 어떻고 앞으로 좀 어떻게 보신지 가볍게 와 오랜만에 이렇게 꼼꼼한 인터뷰 나오니까 피로감이 아 제가 요새 진짜 한동안 와 근데 진짜 저 잠 이거 이것도 좀 내보내 주시면 좋겠는데 너무 신기한 거예요 저같이 부동산 얘기하시는 분들이 많잖아요 네네 다들 멀쩡해 아니 그까 솔직히 좀 그런 거 같아요 그니까 사람들한테 부동산에 대해서 강력하게 얘기를 하고 살아 말라 할 거면 일단 본인도 거의 누구보다 주식 전문가면 주식으로 돈을 벌어 봤든 잃어 봤든 많이 해봤어야 전 된다고 생각을 해요 제 생각이에요 그냥 사람들은 그렇게 반응하지 않는 거 아는데 그런 분들이 너무 적은 것 저는 제 이번 시장에 죽을 뻔했거든요 뭔가 시장의 투자자보다 해설가가 많다라는 시군요 예 정말 요번에 너무 많이 느꼈어요 근데 사실 그분들이 저보다 훨씬 나아요 대중들이 원하는 건 그게 아니거든요 어차피 반응을 봐도 마찬가지인 거 같아요 그래서 좀 요번에 많이 느끼고 많이 반성을 해요
(24:54) 근데 저는 어차피이 일을 하기로 했었으니까 지금 인천은 입주가 안 끝났어 근데 일찌감치 괜찮은 모습에서 지금 회복을 하고 있고요 경기도 점점 좋아지고 있고 부산이 좀 매롱 부산이 수요가 다시 살아나는게 더디네요 그래서 지금 월세로 갔던 사람들이 잘 안 돌아오고 있고 이동을 거리고 있고요 원래 부산의 울산보다 대부분 좀 괜찮은 모습을 보이는게 평균인데 차라리 울산이이 부분에서 좀 더 나아요 대구는 놀랍죠 지금 굉장히 시장이 안 좋아요 거의 주금의 시장이라고 불리고 있는데 그럼에도 불구하고 바닥을 다지고 체력으로 버티고 있고 그리고 사람들이 기거 기 시작을 하고 있고 투자하는 분이라면 지금 대구 시장을 안 본다면 제 말은 투자자 여러분이 얘기하는 꾼들 말씀드리는 겁니다 꾼이라고 스스로 느끼면서 대구를 지금 안 보고 있다면은 전는 되게 이상한 분이라고 생각을 해요 광주는 시장이 느린 느릿이 느립니다 좋지도 않고 나쁘지도 않고 한동안 거래 자체가 굉장히 그 약간 힘이 없다가 천천히 요새 와서가 아니야 천천히 사람들이 천천히 움직이고 있는 시장 근데 사실은이
(25:55) 정도로 정체돼 있으면 안 좋다고 느껴요 부동산은 다시 말씀드리지만 가만히 마이너스 그든 대전은 중심지를 위주로 조금씩 괜찮아지는 타지만 입주 물량도 있고 세종 시랑 엮여 있잖아요 사실 차 타고 30분 내로 간단 말이에요 근데 세종시도 뜻밖에 매도 물량이 지속적이 아무래도 시장 파악이 다른 데랑 좀 다른 거 같아요네 왜냐면 전국고 투자처 였고 전국에서 집을 샀고 나대지에 때려 지은 거잖아요 그래서 사람들이 생각보다 매도를 많이 해서 대전 세종은 좀 살아나는 듯 했었어요 수요가 들어오면서 그런데 들어오는 수요에 반해서 이때 다시 싶었는지 공급 매도가 역 작용하면서 지금 약간 살아 날라는데 누르고 있는 그런 모습을 보이고 있습니다 요게 거의 정확하 거예요 자 그럼 지방에서는 가장 유력하게 상승 가능한 지역은 뭐 지금 사도 괜찮은 지역은 있나요 없으 없다고 해 주시면 되고요 있죠 어딘가요 근데 아 너무 조심스러워 가지고 이거는 요새이 분위기에서 지금은 수도권까지 말씀드리면 안 될까요 수도권 예 지금은 왜냐면 사시라는 분들이 문제가 아니라 지방
(26:58) 광역시 집을 가지고 계신 분들이 일명 희망고문이라고 하잖아요이 분들이 지금 받고 있는 스트레스는 말도 못 해요 왜 그러냐면 지금 부산도 팀이 있고 울산도 팀이 있고 다 팀이 있거든요 대구도 알부자 많잖아요 거기 있는 자산군이 지금 커밍 아웃 고백하고 있는게 뭐냐면 원래 부산에 집을 갖고 부산에 좋은 아파트들 많잖아요 수영구나 해운대구나 울산도 마찬가지로 남구에 좋은 아파트 많아지고 있단 말이에요 여기에 집을 가지고 계신 분들이 집을 팔면은 울산이나 부산에 다시 집을 사시는게 지역 경기 에 도움이 돼요 여기 계속 사실 거란 말이에요 지금 어떻게 하고 있는지 알아요 이분들이 지금 서울집 사요 왜냐 집을 두채 이상 가지고 있으면 안 되잖아요 종부세 때문에 똘똘한 한채로 가고 있는데 똘똘한 한채의 지금 최대 부작용은 지금 전국으로 보셔야 돼요 지방의 자산가들이 지방에 좋은 아파트를 팔고요 지방에 더 좋은 아파트를 사는게 아니고요 서울의 집을 사고 있단 말이에요 지금 강남 산고 잠실가 보시면 전국구 시장이에요 그 이분들 앞으로 여기 거주할 마음은
(27:55) 없단 말이에요 근데이 분들도 어쩔 수가 없어요 파킹을 본인 지역에 못 하게 해 놨잖아 그러니까 지금 자금이 아웃되고 있어요 인구만 아웃되고 있는게 아니라 이분들이 기존의 집을 갖고 있는 분들은 이거를 알면서 굉장히 답답해 하면서 왜 수도권만 밀어주고 우리 소중한 맨날 맨날 뭐 지방 소멸 양극화 뭐 균형 성장 이런 얘기 하면서 지금 내수에서 정말 큰 비중을 차지고 있는 부동산은 개판을 치고 있단 말이에요 이분들 테 지금 어디가 간다 어디를 사시라고 얘기하기가 좀 제가 그 반응을 직접 보고 왔기 때문에 조금 애매해네 [음악]