[요약리뷰] 언더스탠딩 - 집값에 대한 또 다른 시각

 

 

Here's a summary in Korean and English:

한국어 요약:

김건우 대표는 현재 부동산 시장 상황과 전망에 대해 다음과 같이 분석했습니다:

1. 최근 대출 규제로 인해 부동산 거래량이 감소하고 있으며, 일부 지역에서는 가격 조정이 일어나고 있습니다.

2. 미국의 금리 인하가 한국 부동산 시장에 미치는 영향은 제한적일 것으로 예상됩니다.

3. 내년에는 서울 지역의 주택 공급량이 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 가격 안정에 기여할 수 있습니다.

4. 장기적으로는 인구 고령화와 상속 증가로 인해 부동산 시장의 양극화가 심화될 수 있습니다.

5. 가계부채 문제는 심각하지만, 과도하게 공포를 조성할 필요는 없다고 봅니다.

6. 부동산 정책은 시장 안정과 공급 유지 사이의 균형을 맞추는 것이 중요합니다.

English Summary:

Kim Gun-woo analyzed the current real estate market situation and outlook as follows:

1. Recent loan regulations have led to a decrease in real estate transactions, with price adjustments occurring in some areas.

2. The impact of US interest rate cuts on the Korean real estate market is expected to be limited.

3. Housing supply in Seoul is expected to increase next year, which could contribute to price stability.

4. In the long term, population aging and increased inheritances may intensify polarization in the real estate market.

5. While household debt is a serious issue, there's no need to create excessive fear about it.

6. Real estate policies should balance market stability and maintaining supply.

 

금리 내려도 집값 안 오를 겁니다 (분전아카데미 김건우 대표) - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEc259gjSrg

Transcript:
(00:00) 세상의 모든 지식 언더스탠딩네 자 언더스탠딩 오늘은 부동산 얘기 좀 해보겠습니다 부동산 요즘 뭐 미국이 기사를 보니까 그런 것도 있더라고 미국이 금리를 내리면 결국 한국 부동산 꼭 오르더라 미국이 내리면 한국도 내리고 한국이 한국 내리면 뭐 돈도 많아 주고 뭐 대주 금리도 싸지고 결국은 부동산 또 오를거다 에이 뭐 그런 얘기 전망들이 있는데 꼭 그렇지 않을 수 있다음음 또 오히려 부동산 시장이 그렇게 안 오를 수도 있다 런 남들이 다 안 오른다고 할 때 홀로 오를지도 몰라 조심해야 돼 네라고 말씀하셨던 이분이네 이제는 어 하랑 자들까지 다 나서서 대세 상승을 외치던이 시이 시기에 다시 어 분연히 떨쳐 일어서고 진 나 걱정돼 이형 약간 걱정되긴 하는데 어 이제 그렇게
(01:04) 많이 오를 것 같지는 않아라는 이야기를 하시러 오셨대요네 그래서 또 그냥 부동산을 과학으로 접근하시는 분석 전문가 우리 문 문전 아카데미의 김건우 대표님 어서 오십네 안녕하세요 김입니다 안녕하세요 예 아 금리를 내렸는데 안 오를까요 어 다기보다는 뭐 여러 가지 요인이 있으니까 근데 지금으로서는 뭐 다른 요인 들이 더 크지 않나 그다음에 금리 인하도 좀 더 디테일하게 볼 부분이 있지 않나 뭐 요런 생각은 좀 하고 있습니다네음 좋습니다 저는 아주 좋아요네 이제 부동산 전망 이야기 좀 들어보죠 야 근거가 뭘까요 뭐 어떤 지표 일단은 현재 상황부터 살짝 말씀을 드리면 예 어 드러난 이제 실거래가 지수 기준으로 보면은 일단 7월까지 올해 좀 계속 올랐어요 계속 올랐고 특히 이제 6월 7월 한 8월 뭐 초중 선까지는 이제 잘 올라 올랐고요음 어 보시면은 7월까지 이제 연초 대비해서 작년말 연초 대비해서 6.6% 상승했다가 나오는데 사실
(02:08) 6.6%고 하면은 어 생각보다 덜 올랐는데고 할 수도 있어요 왜냐면은 막 신고가 막 전고점 뚫었다 막 이런 것들도 있으니까 근데 6.6% 밖에 안 오은 이유는 어 서울 내에서도 이제 양극화가 있었다라는 얘기죠 양극화라고 하기에는 사실은 지방 정도는대 양극화도 차별화 서울에서는 어쨌든 다 올랐는데 많이 오른 것이 있고 조금 오른 것이 있고 막 이러니까 이제 차별화가 있었고 또 하나는 사람들이 약간 그 뭐 다 그런 건 아니지만 언론에서 하도 이제 23년도는 아직도 하락을 한다라고 얘기하시는 분들이 많아서 23년에 오른 건 좀 감가하여 그래서 24년에 올랐을 때게 와 24년 이렇게 많이 올랐어고 했는데 사실은 상당 부분은 23년에 이미 올랐던 그런 부분도 있기 때문에 두 가지를 다 봐서 어 올해는 일단 어쨌든 서울 평균적으로 6.
(02:52) 6% 올랐다고 보시면 될 거 같고 그런데 요렇게 보시면은 제가 일부러 이제 21년 거부터 갖고 왔는데 21년도 전고점 이제 지수 기준으로 한 180대 후반 188 9요 정도 지금 기껏해야 168 정도고 8월에 좀 더 오르고 하면 뭐한 170 원조 정도 될 거 같아요 그러면은 아직도 21년 고점 대비해서는 한 10% 정도는 낮아요네 그런데도 이제 아까 말씀드렸듯이 강남 같은 데는 고점을 뚫었고음 근데 그 그렇다면 어딘가는 그리고 어딘가의 구축은 아직도 한 20% 고점 대비 낮은 상태인 상황인거죠 그래서 그렇게 서울에서도 굉장히 좀 차별화가 된 상황이었고 약간 과거얘기 조금 설명드리면 이렇게 가파르게 떨어진 시기는 는 어 그 글로벌 적으로도 고금리 쇼크 이제 우리나라도 그렇고 글로벌도 그렇고 고금리 쇼크가 와 갖고 뭐 금리 뭐 자이언트 스템 뭐 이런 거 만 해 가지고 막 어 우리나라 같은 경우는 특히 거기에다 이제 역전세난이 이렇게 발생하면서 급락을 했고 근데 우리나라는 사실은 그 고급리 초크 21년 22년 터 왔다고 봐야 되는데 우리나라는 집값이 좀 먼저 꺾였어요
(03:52) 예 요때 무슨 일이 있었냐면어요 대출 규제가 있었어요 요때 테로 금융위원장이 이제 부임하면서 고 고승범 예 금융위원장이 부인하면서 대출규제를 총 규제하고 할 때 그죠 강하게 그때 총량 규제하고 막 농협 같은 데는 아예 하반기에 아예 대출 문 닫아버리고 막 이러면서 총량 규제를 강하게 해서 그때도 가상 금리를 막 엄청 올렸어요 은행들이 가상이 엄청 올리고 막 제가 그때 청와대 청원 막 넣고 그랬거든요 은행들이 은행만 좋은 짓 한다 이러면서 그래서 엄청 올렸는데 다요 정도는 여기 보시면요 제가 표시하는요 정도는 글로벌 고급리 쇼크요 문제가 아니고 그 대출 규제의 영향이요 정도는 만들어낸 그런 어 상황인 거 같고 사실 요렇게 만 약간 뭔가 어 요새하는 비슷한 면이 있죠 그래서 사실 최근에 하는 대출 규제도 만만히 볼 건 아니다라는 생각을 좀 하고 있습니다음 그래서고 7월까지 차를 오르다가 8월 8일에 이제 집값이 많이 오르니까 어 대책을 발표하죠 8월 8일에 무슨 비아파트 시장 활성화한다 뭐 공급 많이 한다 뭐 런 거 하는데 어 되게 약간 어 속된말로
(04:56) 약간 안습 약간 아무도 신경을 안 쓰는 오히려 이제 집값이 떨어져야 된다고 하는 사람 쪽에서는 이게 오히려 너무 약해서 얘 때문에 더 오르고 있다 이런 주장이 나올 정도로 사실 시장에는 큰 영향은 없었어 사실 저는 중장기적으로는 유효한 정책들이 있다라고 보지만 어 사실 딱 당장은 별로 유효하지 않았는데 어 그래서 아 여기서 끝나나 싶었더니 어 갑자기 이제 은행들이 가상 금리를 엄청나게 인상을 하기 시작하죠 사실 제가 제가 제가 언더스탠딩 지난번에 나왔을 때가 딱 88 대책 전에 8월 초에 88 대책이 있다고 합니다 뭐 이런 얘기를 할 때 딱 나왔었거든요 근데 그때이 규제는 모르겠고 자꾸 금융 금감원장고 한국은행 총재가 말을 하는 걸 보면은 그때도 이제 집값 잡는데는 잘 모르겠는데 현 정부가 가게 부채 잡는데는 좀 진심인 거 같다 이런 말씀을 드렸거든요 약간 군부를 계속 뗐어요 8월에 갑자기 했다기 보다는 계속 군부를 뗐어요 규제할 거 같은 그런 예 아니나까 일단은 구두로 압박을 하니까 은행들이 가상 금리를 급 인상을 했죠 엄청나게 인상 보면은
(06:00) 막 우리은행은 1.7% 농협 같은 경우는 0.5% 하는데 농협 같은 경우는 원래 금리가 낮은 은행이 아니었거든요 그렇기 때문에이 정도였고 평균적으로 지금 한때는 어 그니까 특별한 케이스 무슨 어 장애인 특별 무슨 금리 요런게 아닌 이상 한 3.3요 정도가 적금리 있어요 뭐 6월 말 이럴 때 3.3 3.2지진 상당히 올랐죠 사실 기준 금리 같은 인상한다고 한번 0.25 실질 가상 금리를 거의 1% 이상 올렸으니까 굉장히 큰 인상을 했었고 근데 이렇게 되니까 갑자기 금과 위원장이 약간 말을 바꾼 느낌이긴 하지만 아무튼간에 버럭 했죠 너네 왜 대출을 중이라고 했더니 금리만 올렸어 물론 저는이 말 자체에는 동의를 해요 은행 좋은 일만 한 거거든요 대출 대출을 적게 해라 총량제를 지켜라 사실은 가이드는 금융당국의 가이드는 딱 한 개였어요 총량제를 지켜라 예 1년당 동안에 총량제를
(07:05) 지켜야 되는데 너희는 지금 7월인데 거의 다 나갔네음 총량제를 지켜라라고 한마디를 했더니 그다음 알아서라고 했더니 정말로 금리만 하고 올린 거죠 사실 대출 받는 사람들은 진짜 갑자기 집을 살려고 마음을 먹었거나 혹은 뭐 다른 신용 대출 하려고 마음 먹었는데 1% 올라가니까 되게 사실 당황스럽기 때문에 이런 말 자체는 사실은 맞는 말을 했다고 봐요 금강장 그래서 이렇게 쉬운 어떤 금리 인상만에서 대출 규제를 쪼인 거는 약간 내가 물건을 예를 들어 파는데음 요만큼 남았어요 근데 사람들이 계속 살려고 해 계속 가격 올린 거예요 그 그런 생 그 마찬가지죠 나 돈 많이 벌고 싶어서 사실은 그것이 지금 은행들이 무슨 가게 부채가 많아지는 걸 걱정하고 집값이 많이 올라가는 걸 걱정한게 아니고 돈 많이 벌려고 올린 거예요 그런 상황에서 이런 질책을 했더니 이제서야 이제 좀 금리를 올린 거 외에 어 다른 어떤 자율적 정책을 이렇게 내세웠습니다 근데 이게 어마어마하게 복잡해요 뭐 아시다시피라는 얘기가 나왔지만 엄청 많기도 한데 엄청나게 복잡해 가지고
(08:11) 약간 포기하게 만드는 그런 느낌도 있고 진짜 엄청나게 복잡하다고 엄청 복잡해요 그리고 막 심지어는 뭐 예를 들면 이혼 소리 들고 가면 해 줘요 실수요는 정말 돈이 필요하구나 이혼 서리 들고 정 이한테도 도시 실수요의 정의가 뭐냐 그거 가지고 막 날리더군요 아주 엄청나게 제안을 거니까 물론 정말정말 뭐 필요하고 이러면은 막 약간 자기 본인한테는 해당되지 않는 뭐 은행들을 막 이렇게 가가지고 뭔가 좀 좀 높은 금리라고 뭔가 이렇게 대출을 받거나 할 방법은 있긴 한데 아무튼간에 지금 전반적으로 엄청나게 어이 은행 자체적인 정책 혹은 규제를 가하고 있고 거기다 금리까지 높으니까 첫 번째로는 실질적인 유동성의 통제가 있을 수밖에 없고요 두번째는 이제 일종의 메시지죠 어이 강력한 규제를 우리는 지금 하고 있고음 할 의향이 있고 정부 입장 금융 단국 입장에서 봐도 할 의향이 있고 은행은 이거를 철저히 따를 것 같다 물론 나중에
(09:14) 이게 난리가 나니까 그 금과 분들이 막 사과도 했잖아요 혼란을 들려 죄송합니다 하지만 그다음에 은행 자율적 맡기겠다고 하는데 이게 말이 자율이지만 맘대로 해봐 약간 이런 약간 강압성 그런 메시지를 해서 사람들이 보기에 이런 저도 사실은 어 지난번에도 말했고 저도 가끔 얘기하는 건데 이렇게까지 나오면은 이렇게까지 나왔는데 가게 부채가 만약에 안 잡힌다음 이러면 더 센 거 나오는 거예요 그렇겠죠 그렇겠죠 그렇게까지 했는데 이렇게까지 했는데 잡히면 잡히는 건데 안 잡히면 더 센 거 나오고 한국 은행에서도 기준 금리나 안 하고 이런 식의 약간 시그널이 메시지를 상당부분 저는 던져 줬다고 생각을 하거든요 그 금리는 지금 인하가 됐고 시중 금리도 계속 내려가고 있습니다만 요런 식의 대출 규제 때문에 뭔가 수요의 브레이크가 좀 걸릴거다 그니까 기준 미국 기준 금리가 인하는 됐지만 뒤쪽에 설명을 드리려고 하는데 인하는 됐지만 그거와 상관없이 실질 대출 금리는 인하되지
(10:18) 않았고 그다음에 한국은행 총재도 어 지금 미국 미국이 이제 비컷 0.5% 인하 했을적에 한군의 총재가 말을 한게 어 이제 어 외 적인 환율인 부담이 줄었다 왜냐면은 통과 정치을게 안 올리고 버틸 버틸 수 있는데 여기서 제일 걸린게 사실 환율이 있단 말이에요 한국은행 입장에서는 환유적 부담이 줄었기 때문에 우리나라 상황만 보고 의사 결정을 하겠다라고 했어요 그런데 지금까지 항상 말하던 스탠스를 보면은 우리나라 상황에 집값과가 가게 부채 요게 분명히 크게 들어갈 거란 말이죠 그래서 이번에 만약에 어이 정책이 먹히지 않는다라고 하면은 분명히 기준 금리 인하도 안 할 것 같고 거기다가 한국은 안 할 것 같고 거기다가 추가적인 어떤 금융 당국의 가이드들 그거 이미 얘기들 나왔거든요 안 잡히면 ltv 걸 수도 있고 ltv 규제를 추가로 걸 수도 있고 뭐 DSR 같은 경우 전세 자금 대출을 뭐 DSR 추가로 할 수도 있고 그다음에 또 얘기 나온게 뭐
(11:22) 위험가중치 어 주택 담보 대출에 대한 위험 가중치를 높일 수도 있고 이런 다양한 사실은 카드가 많아요음 카드가 많은데 어 사실 시장 어 부동산 시장이나 어 대출을 뭐 받고 싶어 하시는 분들 입장에서도요 정도에서 한번 잠잠해 줘야 하는게 타이밍으로 좀 그런 측면이 있습니다 아 지금 이렇게 했는데 시장이 반응이 없으면 더 세게 나올 수도 있을거다 그니까 어쨌든 잡겠다는 생각이 너무 강하다 그죠 대출 쪽에서는 확실히 그죠 오히려 국토부 장관 쪽은 그런 얘기를 별로 안 하고음 예 근데 금융 쪽에서는 확실히 그런 시그널을 명확하게 보이고 있고 이런 얘기가 좀 나오고 실제로 실행이 되니까 어 거래량이 감소를 했어요 실질적으로 요거는 좀 뒤쪽에 자세하게 설명을 드릴 텐데 일단 숫자만 보면은 어 7월에 8840 권 정도 서울 아파트가 거래가 됐거든요 8840 권이면 어 그 코로나 때 제로 금리 해 가지고 엄청 막 투자 수요 많이 불 때네 그때랑 무슨 정말 딱 그 문재인 정부 때 또 그거 그 전에 한
(12:27) 번도 또 엄청나게 정말 와 정말 뜨거운 장이다 럴 때가 있었거든요 그러니까 정말 역사적으로 손꼽히는 시기에만 서울이 만건을 넘어가요 량이 그렇기 때문에 8840 gold 이면은 요때 갭 투자가 맞지도 않았으니까 굉장히 이제 실수요인 어떤 시장이 타 올랐다고 볼 수 있거든요 그렇게까지 어 6월에 7567 gold 어 7월에 8840 gold 요렇게 거래가 굉장히 활발하게 되다가 동시 시장이 뜨겁긴 뜨거든요 엄청 뜨거웠죠 굉장히 뜨거 실수요 장으로 생각하면은 굉장히 뜨거웠다가 8월에 훅 꺾이긴 꺾여요음 요게 왜 꺾이는 뭐 복합적인 요인이 있긴 하지만 일단은 그 어 아무래도 아까 말씀드린 그 가상 금리 상승 그다음에 뭐 대출 규제 이런 여러 가지의 혼란 요런 것도이 영향을 충분히 좋다라고 생각을 하고요 그래서 8840 그에서 지금 어 9월 말까지 집계를 해야 되는데 제가 추정하기로 한 6,2 300건 정도에서 깊게 마무리가 될 거 같고 9월 같은 경 경우는 좀 아직 집게 기간이 많이 남았기 때문에
(13:33) 추정인데 이제 흐름을 보면은 대략적으로 추정이 가능하니까 9월 같은 경우는 요새 거래하는 거 보면은 어 8월보다 좀 적어요 8월보다 적기 때문에 6,200원에 4,800 4,000건대 후반 정도까지 내려갈 것 같거든요 그러면 고점 대비 하면은 8840 4,800 아지 꺾이니 거의 절반 정도 꺾이지아요 요거는 아무래도 어 그 수요가 아무래도 좀 식었다 그니까 4,800 권이면 그래도 완전 엄청 수요가 없네 요럴 것까진 아니에요 근데 뜨거웠던 그런 거에 이제 부는 끼얹었다 요거는 충분히 어 보이고 있고요 경기도 같은 경우에도 서울만큼 훅 꺾이진 않았지만 이제 꺾이는 추위가 어 충분히 보이고 있고음 어 여기에서 제가 한 가지 이제 말씀드리고 싶 싶은 것은 아까요 8월 달에요 꺾인게 무엇 때문이냐 요런 분석을 할 때 구별로 좀 어 쪼개서 이렇게 한번 봤어요 어 그랬더니 어 노원구 같은 경우는 기존에 좀 안 오른 곳 상반기에 덜 오른 곳 서초구 강동구 성동구 같은
(14:37) 경우에는 이제 서초 반포 포함해서 올해 제일 핫한 곳 중에 세 곳 이렇게 되거든요 근데 보면은 7월에 제일 어 거래가 제일 높은데 서울 평균 서울 전체적으로는 예요 세 곳은 7월에 이미 고점에 꺾이거나 노원 같은 경우는 7월에 팍 올라요 그러니까 많이 오은 곳은 이미 약간의 피로도를 느끼고 있었다 예 그렇게 생각을 하고 근데 대신에 덜 오은 곳들이 갭이 너무 벌어지니까 박탈감 같은 것도 있고 그다음에 저기 못 가니까 약간 낮춰 가지고 가는 그런 수요자들 뭐 요런 거 현상으로 인해서 덜 오른 것들 여기 어 영등 포구 요런데도 많이 올랐거든요 그러니까 약간 어 손바 아니 그니까 갭이 매워지고 있는 것까진 아니지만 어 많이 오른 곳들은 좀 지치고 덜오른 것들이 오르는 그런 흐름을 마침 보일 때 마침 보일 때 대출 주제가 나와서 요게 시너지가 좀 나지 않았나 그 마침 지금 그냥 가격만으로도 부담을 좀 느끼고 있었던
(15:42) 거 같아 시장이 저 그래프로 보면 하여튼 대출규제를 한게 영향이 있었던 거 같아 보이네요 전체적으로 그리고이이요 8월에 여기도 봐도 훅 꺾이 아아 요거는 요거는 대출규제 영향이고 근데 7월에 미리 꺾였던 거는 이미 가격적인 부담 있었다음 그러니까 약간 울고 싶은데 뺨때 격이 있는 거예요 그래서 이미 약간 부담이 있을 적에 대출 규제까지 했기 때문에 지금 시장은 좀 잠잠해 졌어요 지금이 제가 맨 처음에 보여 드린 그 그래프 지수는 아직 실시간 지수는 아니고 제가 자주 말씀드리지만 어 주간으로 발표하는 지수는 실시간성이 별로 없기 때문에 지수로 현재 시장이 어떻게 되는지를 볼 수가 없거든요 근데 그냥 제가 현장에서 파악하는 그런 뭐 듣는 거 보는 거 요런 것들을 따져 보면은 요새 분명히 쉽긴 했어요 그래서 이런 근데 그게 대출 규제도 있고 뭐 이런 원래 가격 올상반기 너무 올랐으니까 많이 오른 것들은 그 가격 부담도 있었고요 시너지를 내 가지고 현재로서는 약간 꺾인 상황이다 대표님이 이렇게 체감하시는 거는 뭐
(16:46) 어떤게 다릅니까 예를 들면 부동산 중기업을 찾아오는 사람이 줄었다 그나 그런 분위기가 있어요 어 그런 것도 있죠 잠시만 여기 어 여기 있다 예요 요게 딱 그런 지수인데 KBS 요걸 하는 건데 매수 우위 지수란 거는 어 부동산들 테 설문하는 거예요 온라인 뭐 설문을 해 가지고 지금 매도자가 많이 옵니까 매수자가 많이 옵니까 요런 걸 해가지고 예 매수자가 많다 매수자가 없다 그거를 지수로 환산한게 이제 KBS 요거는 나름 실시간성 제가 이제 결과적으로 후분 석을 해 보니까 나름 실시간성이 있어서 가끔 보는 건데 보면은 이제 꺾였어요 요것도 요새는 팔고자 하는 사람이 더 많다 이렇게 응답을 하는 거예요 설문이 응답을 해서요 요런 말씀하신 딱 그것도 이렇게 꺾이고 있다 요새 집사로 오는 사람이 별 없어 약간 이렇게 대답하는 거죠 새 좀 꺾이고 있는 그런 흐름 이렇게 보시면은 5월부터 이렇게 확 올라오잖아요 뜨거운 장이 이렇게 됐었던 거죠 그래서 완전히 많이 떨어지진 않았지만 고점에서 좀 내려왔다 예 요런게 있고 그다음에 어 좀 오해 많이 오른 곳들
(17:45) 그런 단지들 있잖아요 대표 단지들 보면은 호가도 조금 조정이 됐어요 이미 그러니까 어 거래 가격이 떨어진 건 아니에요 보통 거래라는게 어떻게 되냐면 뭐 예를 들어서 10억짜리 집이라고 하면은 어 10억의 최근 거래라고 하면은 는 어 오를 적에는 상승장에서는 10억 5천의 매물들이 이렇게 있어요 그거는 누군가가 10억 5천원짜리를 사잖아요 그럼 가격이 찍어 그러면은 10억 5천에 그 매물이 계속 깔려 있는게 아니고 같이 올리죠 예를 들면 10억 8천에 다 같이 올려요 그래서 실 거래보다 상승장에서는 실거래가보다 호가가 더 높아요 예 그래서 그 호가를 또 잡으면 또 올리고 이제 그래서 막 거래가 엄청 많지 않아도 이제 상승이 계속 발생하는 그런 메커니즘인 지금 같은 경우는 예를 들면서 10억 5천에 거래가 됐는데 그래서 호가가 11억으로 올라왔는데 어 안 팔리네 이래가지고 10억 5천까지 돌아온 거 그니까 실거래가가 아래로 깨진 건 아닌데 아 더 높여서 배장 부리던 호가는 돌아온 곳들이 지금 많다요 정도가 지금 현재의 어 분위기라고
(18:47) 보시면 될 것 같요 리를 반영하는 거요 그죠 그래가지고 지금 뭐 어 서울 부동산이 엄청 꺾였고 엄청 내려갔다 요거는 좀 과장이고 반대로 지금도 오르고 있다 요것도 조금 현실을 발하지 않고 있거 딱 그 정도 수준에 어라고 보시면 될 거 같고 모든 지역이 다 그래요 아니면 아니죠 그 지금 많이 오른 곳들 가격이 부담스러운 것들은 그렇고요음 그다음에 서울에서는 어 좀 이렇게 적응 약간 저는 뭐 적응하고 있는 부분이고 사실 저처럼 이렇게 막 모든 거를 막 챙겨 보지 않잖아 사람들이 그러다 보니까 좀 부담이 적은 것들은 여전히 거래도 발생하는데 어 덜오른 것들도 그 7월 8월 같진 않아요 아직은 예 그니까 이미 음 신 예를면 뭐 수지 그니까 용인 뭐 런 데에 아직은 좀 더 뭐 신고가도 나고 런 것들도 있어서 굉장히 어 혼란스러운 어디는 좀 오르고 어디는 좀 조정되고 요런 식으로의 어 시장이 좀 펼쳐지고 있는 거 같아요 그게 혹시 오르던 지역은 숨고르고 있고 안 오르던 지역으로 오히려 그 매수
(19:49) 열기가 퍼지는 중은 아니에요 어 그 그니까 제가 생각하기에는 아까 그래프도 보여 드렸지만 대출규제 전에 그니까 예를 들어서 대출 규제를 세게 안 하고 그냥 냅 뒀어도 그런 식으로 흘러가지 않았을까음 아 냅 뒀어도 오르는 것이 물론 지금 꺾이는 거보다 더 더 올라갈 수 있겠지만 옆으로 퍼지는 그런 흐름이 갔을 것 같은데 여기서 대출 규제를 하니까 오르는 곳 못 맞게 맞고 퍼지는 것도 조금 늦춰지고 있는 어 그런 흐름일 것 같고 그렇기 때문에 이제 전망이 어려워지는 거죠 사실은 명확하지가 않잖아요 어이 상태에서 어 그러면은 갭이 메워지다 다시 여기가 올라갈 것 같기도 하고 혹은 여기가 눌리고 있으니까 얘도 갭이 메워지지 이건 착각이었고 그 시장이 전체적으로 떨어질 것 같기도 하고라 하는데 저는 어 기본적으로는 어 그 그 예를 들면 서울에서 이제 그 바로미터가 되는 그런 어 마두가 되는 그 지역들이 있어요면 잠실 뭐 고덕 그러니까 얘네가 먼저 오르면 다른 데가 춘주로 따라 오르고 얘네가 먼저 떨어지면 다른 데가 순차적으로 따라 떨어지고
(20:48) 하는데 저는 그런 선두가 되는 지역들을 지금 꺾이고 있는 부분이 보이기 때문에 결과적으로 서울이 어 일단 잠잠해지긴 하겠다 어려운 것은 여기서 얼마나 떨어지느냐음 혹은 상승이었다요 정도에서 마무리가 되느냐이 디테일까지 사실은 뭐 어 그렇게까지 확신을 할 수는 없는 거지만 저는 일단은 좀 꺾일 가능성이 좀 있다라고 질 근데 지금 대출 규제가 나온 이유가 생각해 보면 지금 금리가 내려오기 전부터도 사람들이 막 부동산을 너도나도 막 사기 시작했잖아요 너도나도 사기 시작하니까 야 이래서는 너무 심한데 이거 좀 어떻게 좀 잡아야 되겠는데 그래서 8팔 대책도 나오고 8팔 대책이 나왔는데도 효과가 없는 거 같으니까 야 그럼 대출도 대출이라도 어떻게 좀 틀어막아 봐 그니까 그 말은 물 믿듯이 수요가 막 생기고 있는데 사람들 집을 사야 되겠다는 생각을 막 하고 있는데 사실 억지로 좀 누르고 있는 거잖아요 대출 대출을 규제한다는 느낌은 막 사고 싶은 걸 억지로 좀 야 좀 참어 이렇게 하고
(21:53) 있는 건데 그 말은 이게 조금만 풀리거나 아니면 금리가 조금 내려가거나 대출 규제를 끝까지 계속 조일 수 없다면 다시 결국 튀어나올 수 있는 거 아니냐이 지금 내려가는게 잠깐의 대출 규제 때에 불편할 수 있으나 사람들이 사겠다는 심리가 그럼 없어졌냐 그건 아닌 거 같은 저도 사실 그래가지고이 대출 규제라는게 사실은 근본적으로는 이제 뭐 차후에 어떻게 관리할지 이미 은행에서 어 어느 정도 발표를 하기도 했는데 예 어 지금 대출 규제가 처음에 말씀드린 대로 총량제가 기본이에요 기본적으로 총량제를 지켜라가 기본 메지고대 리셋이 거예요 그래서 1월이 되면은 물론 1월을 딱 되자마자 그렇지 1월 1일이 되자마자 그렇진 않겠지만 은행은 기본적으로 저는 항상 강조하지만 은행은 돈을 버는게 목적이에요 가계부채 이런 거 신용하는게 아니고 내가 최대한 벌 수 있을만큼이자 수익을 버는게
(22:55) 목적이거든요 그래서 일단 하다가 예를 들어서 1 3월 정도 봤어요 너무 대출이 안 팔리네 이러면 또 풀 거예요 풀고 누군가 분명히 눈치 보다가 은행 하나가 먼저 나 특판 내면은 따라 특판 내고 이럴 거거든요 근데 이제 지금에 와서 이제 어 어쨌든 방안으로 내놓은 거는 월별 총량 관리를 하는 식으로 얘기를 하더라고요 그니까 지금 연도별 총장 관리를 하니까 상반기 다 써 버리고 요런 이제 부작용이 있으니까 연도별로 관리하면 작년에 어 가상 금리 뭐 0 뭐 가상 금리 마이너스이 정도의과 경까지는 안 가겠지만음 지금의 엄청 복잡하고 요런 어떤 가상 금리도 막 2% 막 이렇게 받는 그런 정도의 어떤 긴축은 안 될 것 같아요음 그러니까 올 하반기 대비해서 내년 상반기가 은행들의 대출 태도가 훨씬 완화적인 될 거라는 것은 거의 명확합니다 예 그러면은 올해보다 내년에 집값이 만약에 올해 그것 때문에 집값이 떨어진다라고 하면은 내년에 집값이 오일가 다 뭐 다른 변수가 비슷하다고 하면은 저도 그렇게 생각해요 말씀하시 똑 생해 어 원래
(24:00) 이제 많이 오른 피로감음 그다음 대출 규제 그다음에 뭐 나중에 뭐 둔촌주공 이런 물량들 뭐 이런 영향들 요런 것까지 합쳐 가지고 약간 꺾일 수 있다라고 보지만 뭐 한 6개월 제가 보기에 예를 들어서 뭐 내년 1분 지나고 뭐 또 제가 지난번 타이틀이 날 날 찬바람이 불면은 지금 사세요 였는데 날이 다시 꽃이 피면은 집값이 꽃이 피면서 집값이 다시 오를 수 있는 가능성이 높다라고 생각해요 어 이번에 혹 좀 잠잠해지고 내가 집 골라 수 있 이런 데가 면은음 대출 규제가 되고 이게 연구의 이제 추세적으로 폭락을 하겠네 생각하시기 보다는 일시적 대출 규제에 힘이 강하니까 그러면은 지금 잘 골라서 내집을 해보시는 것도 좋지 않을까라는 생각을 하죠 이번에 나온 대출 제가요네음 그동안에 올랐던 것이 기 장이었다고 말씀 주셨잖아요네 네네네음 무주택자가 새집 사는 것도
(25:03) 많지 않고음 그것도 많 어쨌든 다주택자가 집한채 더 사는 거는 안 되는 거니까 1주택이 2주택 되거나 하는 건 안 되는 거니까 다 무주택이 1주택 되거나 1주택이 갈아타기가 되는 거 과정에서 이제 오르는 건데 그 무주택이 1주택 되기 혹은 1주택자가 갈아타기를 할 때 이번 대출 규제 때문에 막히는게 꽤 생겼어요 어 일단은 저는 가장 센 건 진짜 복잡하게는데 저는 다른 것보다 가장 센 거는 그냥 가상 금리를 1% 올린게 세다고 봐요 아 대충 해주가 안 해고 주고는 아닌데 그런 그거는 왜 저는 그렇게 세지 않다라고 보면은음 금리를 조금만 더 주면은 PR 은행들은 많아요 나는 여기가 막히는데 은행이 많잖아요음 뭐 심지어는 뭐 광주은행 뭐 대구행 이런 데까지 다 찾아서 보면은 어쨌든 나한테 대출해 줄 것은 할려 할 수는 있다 할 수 있는데 그 은행들이 다 같이 가상 금이 이미 올려 버렸기 때문에 그게 굉장히 좀 센 거 같고 그리고 예 갈아타기 같은 근데 이제 디테일하게 보면은 갈아타기가 막혔을 적에 이런 부동산 전망하는 사람들이
(26:09) 어 이건 세다 갈아타게 막힌 건 뭐냐면은 어 뭐 일부 은행 특히 근데 큰 은행 신하는 행 요런데 같은 경우에는 1주택 자만 대출 해 주는데 예 갈아타기 어덕 즉 처분 조건을 걸어도 안 해 준다 대출 안 돼준다 뭐 이렇게 됐거든요 갈아타기가 안 되잖아요 갈아타기 때문에 오른 장인데 갈아타기가 안 되니까 이게 되게음 겠다라고 했는데 사실은 제가 여기 보시면은 뭐 디테일하게 무슨 홍보 같기도 하고 그래서 말을 안 했는데 SC 같은 경우는 한 개도 안 해요 그렇죠로 요즘 간다고 하더군요 그래서 그러니까이 중에서 이제 보면은 또 기업 같은 경우에는 더 적게 하고 시한이랑 뭐 우리 같은 경우에는 제일 많이 하고 뭐 이런 것들 있잖아요 피할 것들은 충분히 찾을 순 있어요 저는 금리 자체가 올라간게 그것도 0.5% 아니고 뭐 1.
(26:55) 5%이 정도가 올라간게 제일 세다에서는 대해 주는데 저런 상황에서는 금리를 조금이라 더 받지 뭐 그렇겠죠 예 그래서 그때 그 금감원장이 그 쉬운 길만 간다 금리 인상만 하고 있다면서 그러지 말라라고 했는데 그 이후로 내린 데는 하나도 없어요 오케이 하면서 이제고 고급리 이미 많이 올린 고금리를 유지한 상태에서 다른 정책을 건 거지 예 어 금과 원장님이 저렇게 말씀하시니까 금리를 내려야겠다 해서 내린 곳은 하나도 없거든요 여전히 상당히 높은 상황이라서 그 많이 오른 그 올 상반기에 많이 올랐던 그때가 한 3% 초반까지 내려가면서 집값이 올랐다고 하면은 4% 초중반이 되니까 혹은 4% 중반이 되니까 이것은 압박을 받을 수밖에 없는 그런 상황이라고 봅니다 은행들이 3% 초중반까지 금리를 낮췄을 때는 영 마진이나 그랬었죠네 마진이 없 보통이 없는 거 그렇죠 보통 마진이 없고 일부 이제 뭐인인 인터넷 뱅킹 이런 데는 영 마진도 하고 그랬죠 데 왜 그랬어요
(28:00) 그때 아 근데 사실은 저는 이제 여러 가지 이유가 있는데 뭐 어 기본적으로는 좀 경쟁이었다 거 같고요 경쟁이었다 거 같고 사실은 역마진이게 조달 금리 대비해서 내가 이제 대출 해 주는 금리가 더 낮으면 역마진이 나는 거잖아요 근데 조달 금리라는게 그 이게 만약에 뭐 장기 대출 해 주잖아요 뭐 30년짜리 보통 주택 담보 대출 금리는 근데 그 30년 장기적으로 봤을 적에 어 예를 들어 뭐 3.5%고 칠게요 30년 동안 3.5% 쭉 받으면은음 어쨌든 금리 기준 금리가 내려가고 본 본인들의 조달 금리가 내려갈 것이기 때문에 30년짜리 3.5%짜리 그 고객을 많이 몰고 오는게 결국은 이득이 되는 거예요 지금 당장은 마진이 없어도이 사람을 30년 동안 묶어 만약에 묶어둘 수 있으면 혹은 5년 고정이라고 해도 5년 동안 묶어 들 수 있으면은 당장은 마이너스 같지만 5년 동안은 플러스가 결국 날 거거든요 그다음에 5년 5년이 됐을 적에 우리 은행에서 본인들의은 은행에서 갈아타기가 되면은 어쨌든 장기적으로 또음 음 그래서 보시면은 그 어 그 가상 금리가 0이거나 혹은
(29:06) 마이너스 이렇게 영업을 할 적에도 은행들 영업 이익이나 요런 실적은 계속 역대 최대였고 영업을 계속 마이너스로 하는데도 그거는 예전에 마진 높게 했던게 계속 들어오니까 그러니까 그것도 이것도 장기적으로 봤을 적에 그런 식으로 해 영업을 해서 그리고 인터넷 뱅크 같은 그런 회사들은 저도 IT 회사 출신인데 it 회사들은 기본적으로 로 죽어라 해요 남 남을 죽이고 치킨 게임이 기본이에요 마이너스 적자는 기본이지 토스나 쿠팡 이런 다가 심지어 토스나 카카오 이런 적자는 기본이지 마인드가 그 적자를 한 다음에 뭘 하느냐 마켓 쉐어를 늘리는게 기본인 거죠 예 그래서 그런 마인드를 가진 인터넷 뱅크드 침투하면서 은행들도 일단은 마켓쉐어 그니까 고객을 뺏기지 않고 장기적으로 이익을 가져가자 요런 식의 경쟁이 됐던 거 같은데 지금은 은 사실은 약간 어 좋은 좋은 날 온 거죠 어떻게 보면은네 그래서 그런 상황입니다 그리고 제가 추가 추가적으로 조금 더 말씀드리면 예 그런데 이제 이제 빅컷이 이렇게 왔죠
(30:11) 해서 요게 좀 기대감 있니다 부동산 시장에서는 대출 금리 대출 규제 때문에 주춤하는 분위기도 있고 사람들이 막 우려도 하고 이랬는데 가뭄의 단비처럼 어 미국에서 0.5% 기준 금리를 인하한 거예요 그래서 이거에 대한 효과는 여러 가지 뭐 해석들이 있긴 하지만 아무래도 부동산 시장에서는 조금 기대감이 커요 기대감이 크고 그러면은 어 다시 어 내렸던 금리 올랐던 금리도 내려갈 것 같고 런 식으로 하는데 제 생각에 일단은 뭐 장기적으로 보면 당연히 금리가 2번만 내릴 것도 아니고 계속 내릴 거잖아요 장기적인 거 말고 일단 현재 비컵 그다음에 올해 내 정도로 봤을 적에는 애매한게 있는게 일단은 어 0.
(30:56) 5% 기준 금리를 인화했는데 미국만 봐도 어 물 국채금리 벤츠마크 님 10년물 국채 금리는 올랐어요음 어 요게 요즘이 이제 기준 금리 인상 아 요때 인하한 건데 어 한 0.13 정도 올랐어요 그러니까 그 말은 즉은 일단 첫 번째로는 어 경기 침체가이 발언들이 있잖아요 연준의장 같은 분들이 발언 한는데 경기 침체가 없을 것 같으니까 혹은 약할 거 같으니까 이제 오르는 것도 있고 또 하나는 이제 그 갓이라고 하는 그 선반영 예 이미 된 거죠 반이 이미 돼서 너무 과하게 됐다가 다시 올랐어요 그리고 한국도 마찬가지입니다 한국도 엄청 내려갔다가 금리 미국 금리 잠깐 올랐어요 많이 오르 미국처럼 많이 오르진 않았는데 올랐어요 튀었어요 그래서 보시면은 뭐 3년 물이 지금 2.
(31:44) 85 뭐 그리고 한 뭐 1년 물이 2.9m 막 이렇게 되거든요 이것도 반이죠 반영이고 지금 3년물이 우리나라 이제 보통 벤치마크 하는데 2.85 아아 우리나라 기준 금리가 3.5단 말이에요 그다음 1년 1년이 한 . 몇 있잖아요 그러면은 두번 정도의 인하는 이미 시장에서 반영을 한 거예요음 그러니까 제 말은 기준 금리 인하가 된다고 해서 그거만큼 우리나라 채권 금리 대출 금리가 훅훅 같이 따라 내려가지 않는다라는 거죠 미국도 마찬가지고요 그래서 특히 이제 어 이런 거 국고채 금리 말고 대출 금리란 가장 강력하게 이제 연동이 되는게 이제 보통 5년 고정으로 대출 받으니까 은행채 5년물 금 에다가 가산 금리를 붙여 가지고 어 보통 대출 나가는데 어 이게 어쨌든 한 8월 초랑 비슷비슷해요 요때는 뭐 약간 뭐 어 이슈가 있어 갖고 이렇게 올라갔는데 보통 비슷비슷 하거든요 것도 이렇게 내려갔다가 요때 딱 요때 금리나 했어요 두 번 연속으로 올랐거든요 요것도 상당히 선반영 됐다가 올라가서 어 대출 실질적인 대출 금리조차도 어
(32:51) 금리 어 미국 기준 금리가 인하가 됐다고 해서 예 뭔가 어 대출 금리가 떨어진다거나 어하 하지 않고 있기 때문에 어 이미 대출 어 미국에서 컷을 했지만음 어 그 이후로 며칠이 지났지만 대출 금리는 떨어진게 없어요음 그래서 지금 뭐 이번에 0.5% 뭐 대출 금리 아니 어 기준 금리 인하를 했던 혹은 앞으로도 뭐 여러 가지 이제 뭐 연준의 점도표 있고 막 있잖아요 0.5를 더 인하할 것 같다고 하던 대출 금리가 그마만큼 그 흐름에 따라서 떨어질 거냐라고 하면은 절 저는 뭐 그렇게 크진 않을 것 같아요 물론 떨어질 거예요 떨어질 건데 그 가상 금리를 아까 말씀드렸듯이 1% 1.
(33:33) 5% 이렇게 올려 버렸기 때문에 그거에 비하면 사실은 어이 채권 금리 기준 금리의 변동폭은 약하다 그러니까 지금 쪼이고 있는 은행들의 자체적인 정책이 훨씬 시장에 강한 영향을 미치고 있고 그리고 어 제 생각에는 앞서 말씀드렸다시피 여기서 만약에 어 기준 금리가 인하를 뭐 미국 기준 금리 인하하고 막 이래 가지고음 다시 다시 불이 붙고 어 대출 도 많이 받고 시장이 오른다고 하면은 또 다른 카드들도 있고 이렇기 때문에 지금 미국이 기준 금리를 인하를 했다고 해서 뭔가 시장적 어 상방 압력 굉장히 강하게 받고 어 집값이 오르고 어 다시 가게 대출이 뭐 한 달에 뭐 8조 이렇게 올라가는 어 그런 상황이 벌어지기는 좀 쉽지 않지 않을까 아 요런 생각을 좀 하고 있습니다 시중 금리는 오 오히려 올라가고 하니까 예음 금리가 매우 낮았던 건 올해 연초부터 많이 낮았죠 어 그렇긴 한데요 노마진 예 그죠 근데 이제 그 채권 금리 이제 대출 금리로 보면 은행채 금리 자체가 계속 떨어졌어요
(34:37) 그래서 올초에는 한 3.7에서 8 정도 대출금 주택 담보 대출 금리 기준으로 3.7에서 8% 정도 됐다가 한 6월 달쯤이 제일 낮았던 거 같은데 그때 뭐 한 3.3 3.2 대도 있었고요 그니까 점점 점점점 낮아졌어요네 그래서 매수세에 불이 붙었다 매수 불 붙었고 근데 약간 사람들이 이것도 약간 일종의 선반영 있데 그 그런 생각을 했었어요 그 제가 이렇게 뭐 이렇게 집을 사고자 하는 사람들하고 얘기를 나눠 보면은 그때 이미 3.3 이렇게 됐잖아요 그 저는 봤을 적에 이게 이미 은행의 채권 금리나 뭐 요런 것들에 있어서 어 기준 금리 인하를 반영한 느낌이었거든요 실질적으로도 그런 어 그런 숫자였다 이제 시장의 참여자들 혹은 매수 대기자 분들은 여기서 기준 금리 인하가 되면은 더 떨어질 거 같은데 그러니까 내가 더 떨어지니까 더 낮은 금리에 나중에 대출을 받아야지 아니고 더 떨어지면 집값이 더 어를 것 같은 거예요음 그 내가 요즘에 사야겠다고 하는 그런 기대심리가 좀 먼저 반영된게 있었죠
(35:41) 기준 금리가 기준 금리가 떨어질 거라는 것을 이미 사람들은 알고 있었어요 물론 작년부터 계속 내린다고 했지만 이젠 진짜다 이젠 진짜 6월 7월 9월 중에 하나다 이렇게 하고 있었던 적이 계속 있었으니까 그러면은 기둥이 떨어지기 전에 미리 사야지요 심리가 꽤 [음악] 강했어요음 맞습니다 아무튼 그래서네 뭐 저는이 뭐 디테일하게 사실은 뭐 언제 뭐 얼만큼 떨어지고 얼만큼 오르고 이런 거를 맞추기는 좀 어렵지만 저는 시장은 일단은 이미 식었고 식은 상태에서 뭐 기준 금리가 어 뭐 떨어졌던 뭐 어떤 일들이 생겼던간에 어 오르기는 쉽지 않고 첫 번째로는 단기 간에 다시 오르기 다시 기존 올 상반기 같은 어떤 흐름이 나오기는 쉽지 않고 또 하나는 오른다고 한들 산이 높으면 고리 깊다고 여기서 더 올라서 더 센 규제를 맞아 버리면은 오히려 조정폭이 커지는음 그래서 시장의 상승을 바라는 분들
(36:47) 입장에서도요 정도에서는 조금 쉬었다가 몇 달 쉬었다가 천천히 이제 다시 어 올라가는 그런 흐름으로 가는게 오히려 낫지 않을까 이런 생각을 합니다 지난번에 오셨을 때는 왜 그런 얘 말씀을 해 주셨잖아요 공급이 하반기에 너무 없다 이미 그것 때문에 뭐 특히 내년도 없다음 그래서 올해 있는 거 중에 둔촌주공 좀 있는 영향이 좀 있으나 내년엔 더 없고 그래서 한동안은 공급이 제대로 되는게 없어서 그게 부동산을 좀 끌어 올릴 거 같다네 그래서 하반기를 노려라이 이게 어 뭐 이렇게 좀 분해서 봐야 되는데 예 서울 같은 경우는 내년에 많아요 공급이 서울 내년은 많아요 서울 외에 다른 곳들은 내년부터 적고요 내년만 많아요 서울은 내년만 많아요 정확하게 따지면 올해 11월 말부터 올해 11월 말에 둔촌 출발이요 올해 11월 말부터 해 내년 12월 말까지 어 13개월 정도 어 요때가 좀
(37:52) 많아요 꽤 많아요 어 어 올해에 원해 11월 말 전까지 기준으로요 11개월 정도요 때와 비교하면 앞으로 13개월 동안 뭐 한 네배 엄청 많아요 그니까 올해가 너무 적었어요 일단 올해가 너무너무 적었어요 밀어놓은 밀어 놨으니까 맞아요 요걸 다 밀어놓은 거요 때에 지어졌던게 뭐 여러 코 코로나 뭐 자재 뭐 이런 이슈로 인해서 다 밀려서 25년에 약간 몰린 거예요 그래서 25년도 물량이 많아요 그래서 그것도 제가 어 지금 어 일단 둔촌 주은 11월 말에 입주를 하니까 어 그러면은 그니까 기본적으로 지금 제가 예상하는 거에 굉장히 중요한 변수가 금융적인 부분 말고 굉장히 중요한 변수가 전세가 그든 전세가음데 전세가가 지금 다른 웬만한 요소들은 상승세를 좀 이렇게 상승의 요인을 줄 만한 그런 식으로 좀 흘러가고 있어요 예를 들면은 어 전세가가 조금 조금씩 올라가면서 갱신권을 많이 써서 시장에 흘러나는 물건들이 너무 없거나 뭐 요런 문제들이 있거든요 보통 갱신권을
(38:57) 많이 쓰면은 전세가가 올라가요 보통 그런 흐름들이 있거나 한데 저는 이제 둔촌 주공이 뭐 사전 점검하고 이제 11월 말 입 주니까 지금부터 물건이 좀 나오긴 하는데 어쨌든 한 10월 좀 넘어가서 사전 점검하고 뭐 이렇게 되면은 물건이 더 많이 나와서 그것들이 적어도 강동 뭐 송파 또 더 더하면 뭐 강남 요런 데까지는 더 영향을 많이 줘 가지고 주요 지역들이 많이 영향을 주면서 전세가도 그게 아래로 떨어뜨리지 못해도 어 올라가는 거를 막는 그런 하방 압력은 줄 것 같거든요 그래서 둔촌 주공의 물량이 많고 그다음에 25년도는 계속 조금씩 꽤 많아요 월별로 꽤 많아 가지고 25년도 어쨌든 그래서 만약에 어 원래 직 뭐 약간 만약에 조정이 온다라고 하면 꺾이는게 뭐 10월 11월부터고 하면은 뭐 한 1 2개월 만에 끝나는게 아니고 한 6개월 정도 생각하는 거는 어 25년도 물량이 계속 있기 때문에 그런데 그럼에도 앞서 말씀드렸듯이 어 대출 규제는 일시적이고음 뭐 지금만 그니까 완전
(40:01) 풀리진 않아도 어 지금만큼 강하게는 안 걸 거라고 생각을 하고 거기다가 공급은 결국 줄어들거음 그니까 주변 서울 서울 외의 공급은 이미 25년부터 없어요 굉장히 적어요 점점점 적어지긴 하는데 25년부터 굉장히 적고 어 26년에 서울 뿐이 아니고 뭐 다 적거든요 그러니까 그렇게 되면은 이제 공급이 너무 부족하니까 대출 규제도 지금보다 훨씬 낮고 음어 그러면은 웬만한 뭐 다른 충격 뭐 요런 것들이 있지 않으면은 어 다시 반등을 할 가능성이 어 더 높겠죠 그래서 거는 좀 현재 상황 혹은 뭐 단기 한 반년 정도의 전망으로 봤을 적에 요런 말씀을 드린 겁니다 그 수급과 관련해서 말씀을 들으면 그래 공급이 부족하니 예 뭐 그렇게 되겠군 이라는데 끄덕거려 있는데 어 뭐 가장 조금 좀 근본 근본적인 질문들은 이런게 있더군요 그래 그런데 너무 비싼 거 아니야 집이 어음 어 너무 비싼 거 수입에 비해서 그까
(41:04) 소득이다 어디든 집값이 너무 올라 있어서 최근 몇 년 사이에네 그래서 저 저걸 감당할 수 있겠어 저렇게 누가 사 줘야 저 집값이 계속 오르는 건데음 그게 절대적으로 너무 높으면 공급이 적어요 입주가 없어요 뭐 그런 거를 다 떠나죠 비싼 가격이 그냥 눌러버리는 거는 아닐까 하는 그런 어 질문들도 있는 거 같더군요네 그 그니까 그렇게 보일 거 같아요 저도 뭐 충분히 그렇게 볼 수 있다 생각하고 근데 놀라운 것은 그렇게 보이는 집값이 더 오르고 있는게 되게 놀랍죠 사실 어떻게 보 근데 예를 들어서 서울에서도 어 좀 저렴한 집들 아파트 기준으로도 예 나홀로 아니고 그냥 규모 있는 아파트 기준으로 봐도 좀 오래되고 서울에서 이제 핵심지 아닌 곳들을 보면은 예 어 웬만 만큼 애를 뭐 직장을 가지고 이런 사람들이 사기에 이게 비싼가 예를 들어서 몇 년 대출 받아서 원리금 이만큼 이렇게 갚는다고 생각하면 이게 비싼가 싶은 아파트들이 진짜 많아요 오히려 더 더
(42:07) 많아요 근데 언론에 많이 나오고 커뮤니티에서 얘기되고 막 이런 것들이 진짜 비싸죠음 그럼 어떻게 보면 얘는 되게 비싸고 얘네들은 합리적인 가격인데 얘네들이 더 오르잖아요 그죠 약간 뭐 사람들이 좋은 것을 더 선호하고 약간 그 심리적으로 이런 것들을 뭐 못 잡으면 뭐 안 될 것 같고 그다음에 계속 어 솔림 현상들이 발생하음 하는 그런 트렌드가 계속 가격이 올라가는 어 그런 요런 것들만 올라가는 현상을 만들어내는 거 같고 저는 인구가 줄어들면 줄어들 수고 오히려 쏠리 현상은 더 강해질 거라고 생각을 하거든요 어 양극화도 강해지고 그런 차원에서 비싼 것이 되게 비싸 보이는 거는 그 소득이 높은 사람들이 결국 이거를 커버해 주는 거예요음 소득 평균 소득으로 볼게 아니고 상위 소득이 상위 소득이 DSR 40%이 정도의 그런 가격대를 계속 커버해 주는 거거든요음 그러니까 비싼 거는 그냥 소득 높은 사람들 커버해 주는 거고 비싸지 않은 것들 서울에 서울에서도 혹은 경기도 약간 정말로 어 4호선 뭐 뭐 신분당선 이런 초역 세 건들 가도 구축 같은데 가면은 뭐
(43:09) 한 7억 뭐 그 정도의 괜찮은 집 뭐 국민 평형도 살 수 있거든요 그런 것들은 뭐 사실 맞벌이 부부라고 하면은 충분히 할 수도 있 올라갈 수 있고 그러니까 이제 국민 평형이 30억 이렇게 가는게 떠 올라 또올 수 있다고 정말 어 이런 생각인 건데 보통 그러면 그런 집 사는 분들은 대출을 얼마 정도 받고 사요 30억짜리 집을 산다고 치면 사실은 저는 그 이거에 대해서 그 딱 가격대 별로 그 대출 얼마나 받는지를 통계를 본 뭐 이거 뭐 은행에서 잡을 수 있을지 모르겠는데 저는 못 잡았는데 어 그냥 얘기 되기로 사실은 고가 주택을 더 대출 안 받는다라고 해요 이건 저도 검증은 안 해 봤어요 근데 고가 주택이 오히려 저가 주택이 대출 퍼센테이지는 더 높고 왜냐면은 실질적으로 해주는 것도 몇음 음오 중들이고 주택들이 오히려 대출의 비중이 적고 그다음에 전세 같은 경우에도 지금 말씀하신 거는 약간 다른 결이긴 한데 놀라운 거는 전세값이 막 강남 보면은 17억
(44:13) 18억 막 이래요 국민 신축같은 경 20억 넘은 것도 당연히 있고 전세자금 대체는 5억 밖에 안 되거든요 나머지는 다 현금으로 가지는 하는 거예요 놀라운 거죠 저도 그니까 저도저도 이데이터 이런 거를 보고 분석을 하는 건데 그런 거 다 빼고 상식적으로 보면 와 이거를 왜 전세에 저 돈을 넣지 막 이렇게 왜 전세에 15억을 생 돈으로 넣는 거지 이런 생각이 든단 말이야 뭐 이자를 주는 것도 아니고 저돈 있으면 투자할게 얼마나 많은 그 오 되게 놀라운데 어쨌든 그런 일들은 발생을 하고 있고음음 그리고 이게 어떻게 흘러갈지 저는 뭐 오늘 얘기는 아니지만 이렇게 어떻게 흘러갈지 되게 어 집 주목을 하고 있는 부분은네 앞으로 돌아가시는 분들이 되게 많을 거예요 돌아가신 분들 중에 우리나라는 되게 이게 이게 문제이기도 한데 그 묶여 있는 돈들이 많아요 나이 드신 분들이 자산을 안고 소비도 안 하고 음음 고자 상관인데 그게 거의 다 부동산이 예 예 그분들이의 돈이 내려와야 되는데 이게 내려오지 않고 있거든 그다 쓰지도 않고음 근데
(45:16) 이제 돌아가시는 분들이 많을 거거든요 계속 많아지 엄청 많아지 매년 매달 많아지거든요 상속이 될 거잖아요 상속이 되면서 집은 아파트는 팔 거고음 그러면은 이때 팔리는 아파트 와 그다음 상속이 돼서 자식들이 뭐 집을 사거나 돈을 쓸 거잖아요음 이게 영향이 어떻게 어떻게 될지가 저는 장기적으로는 되게 궁금하거든요 상속세 이런 것도 더불어서 양쪽 집에서 상속받아서 집이 두채가 돼 버린 꽤 근데 자식들이 여러 명이장아찌 보면은 어 한 채를 팔고 뭐 뭐 양쪽 집이라고 어쨌든 한 사람이 한 분이 돌아가시면 한 채를 팔고 예 여러 명이 나눠 가졌는데 그러면이 사람들이 집을 다 집을 산다고 하면 집값은 오를 거예요 예 근데이 사람들이 다 집을 안 살 수도 있잖아요 그니까 이것에 대한 영향력 상속세도 빠져나가고 뭐 이런 것들 이런 것들이 저는 궁극적으로 돈 그냥 돈이 단순히 비싸서고 하면은 간단히 말하면은 생각보다 돈이 많은 사람들이 많아요 그다음에 증여도 많이 되고요 어디 어디 있는 거야 대지 그니까 돈은 너만
(46:20) 없어 그런 얘기들 많이 하더라고 예 그다음에 소득이 되면은 젊으신 분들은 옛날에 비해서 더 대출을 하는데 더 어 부담없이 옛날에는 빚 내면 죽어 약간 이런 옛날에는 뭐 그런 분이었던 좀 더 지금 뭐 DSR 40% 뭐 이런요 안에서는 어 그런 분위기가 있고 그다음에 사실은 집값이 비싸다라는 거를 주거비로 치환하면 정말 비싼 가라는 생각도 좀 해 볼 필요가 있거든요 그래서 좀 그니까 모든 거를 저는 주거비로 좀 치환을 해서 생각해 볼 필요가 있는데네 뭐 약간 다른 결이만두 너무 심각해음 가격차가 너무 커 그거를 이창용 통제가 얘기를 하는 거는 전 이제 대출 받는 사람들 기준으로 DSL 37% 이상이면 이게 너무 사람들의 갖춰 본 소득의 영향을 크게 줘서 소비를 줄이고 경기 침체를 만든다 그 경 변곡점이 37% 다른 얘기를 해요 예 근데 저는 여기서 어 조금 더 생각해야 되는 부분은 우리나라가 대출을 DSL 37%만큼 원리금을 내는데 두 가지에 좀 더 생각해야 될
(47:25) 부분이 있는데 한 가지는 우리 리나라는 그런 많은 원리금 상환을 하면서 대신에 안 하는 소비가 있어요 아 덜 하는 소비 뭘까요 월세 월세 우리는 월세를 잘 안 내줘 덜 내죠 전세를 해서 그니까 전세 작업을 렌트비는 많이 안 들어죠 그죠 대출을 해서 은행에 이자를 내는데 대신에 월세를 덜 내죠 집주인한테 그러니까 DSR 37% 안에는 월 주거비가 포함되어 있다 다른 나라와 달리 그래서 요거를 그냥 37%서 갇혀본 소득이 적 라고 하기에는 좀 애매하다 또 하나는 우리나라는 주택 담보 대출을 받으면은 원금 상환이 의무다 다른 나라는 아니죠 예 다른 아니고 원금을 상하 이건 약간의 저축 개념이 일종에 이거는 갚는게 아니에요 37% 안에 원금 상환이 포함 근데 주택 담보 대출 받으면요 원금이 반이에요 매달 하는 거 원금이 반 이상일 때도 있고 물론 뭐 원리금 상관이냐 원금 상관이냐 뭐 이런 거에 따라 다르긴 하는데 그렇기 때문에 어 그렇게 어 많은 대출 어떤 금융인 부담이 있는 것도 아니고 그다음에 어 그렇게 대출을 받아갖고 집을 사는데 이게
(48:30) 집값이 비슷한 가라고 보면은 37% 정도 받아갖고 예를 들어서 집을 산다 그니까 DSR이 맥시멈 개인별로 40% 아아 집을 산다라고 하는데 어 다른 나라 봤을 적에는 월세가 그냥 임차 주거비가 소득의 20에서 30% 미국은 30% 넘고 뉴욕은 뭐 60% 넘고 그면 월 주거비로 2 30% 나가는 거잖아요 우리나라가 대출받아서 어 대출을 뭐 그 원리금 상환하는데 40% 이내로 내는데이 사람들이 정말 영인가 음은 다라는 그 원래 월 원래 주거를 2 30% 내는데 40% 원리금 상에서 내 집으로 산다라는게 그렇게 글인가 그러면은 그렇게 해서 다시 좀 돌아가서 생각해 보면은 이걸 지금 기준으로는 지금의 어 DSR 40% 스트레스 DS 그지 적용하면 한 37% 정도 안에서 끊겨요 그 이상 대출 못 받아요네 그러면은 소득으로 될 만한 커버될 만한 사람들이 고가 주택을 사고 있는 거다라는 이게 결론으로 돌아오거든요 그니까 기존에 기존에 연글 했던 사람들 옛날 DSR 정책이 없고 예 그냥 막 대출 해졌을 때 집 샀던
(49:33) 사람들은 집값이 올라서 괜찮았는데 튼 그때는 좀 무분별 했다고 쳐도 지금의 DSR 다가 스트레스 DSR 그지 적용하는 거 기준으로는음 그런 렇게 했는데도 만약에 누가 집을 고가에 사고 있다 예라고 하면은 그냥 아 소득이 그게 되는 사람들이 많구나음 그렇게 어 생각이 될 수밖에 없지 그냥 못 사니까 안 그러면 그니까 소득이 되거나 아니면은 누군가가 돈을 줘서음음 코인이 돼서 상속을 해서 했든지 뭐 뭐 코인이 대박이 나서 뭐 어떤 요인이 어선 예 다른 돈이 있는 거니까 그러니까 안 되는 사람이 억지로 돈을 끌어 가지고 막 레버리지를 막 일으켜 가지고 집을 사서 그게 집값이 오르면 그 거 거품은 좀 곧 터질 수도 있는데 그 그죠 문제가 될 수도 있고 그거 거품이라 생각할 거품이 아니라는 뜻일 수도 있잖아 그니까 지금에 지금 많이 올랐는데 거품이 아니라는 뜻일 수 있는게 아니라 거품이 아니라는 뜻입니다 거품이 아니라는 뜻입니까 그럼 지금의 가격은 거품 하나도 아니야 이거이 지금 만약에 DSR DSR 규제가 유지가 되고 스트레스
(50:38) DSR지 적용이 되잖아요 뭐 지금 지금 50% 이제 내년 중반부터 어 스트레스 DSL 풀로 적용이 되고 예 그리고 지금은 스트레스가 강하게 적용이 되거든요 그니까 그 고점 기준으로 스트레스 금 요건 좀 복잡한데 금리를 매기기 때문에 아무튼 지금은 스트레스 금리가 강하게 돼요 2027년 12월까지 스트레스 금리가 굉장히 강하게 적음 적이 되거든요네 이럼에도 불구하고 만약에 고가다 오른다음 이러면은 그냥 살 만한 사람이 어 사는거다 어 요런 생각이 좀 들죠 아 참 저는 집값이 그래서 질문은 제가이 질문은 드렸지만네 돈이 없는데 집을 사는 사람은 없을 거예요 그래서 요즘엔 뭐 그냥 의사들이 집 값다 올리고 있어요 뭐 실선 보험 10년 이 부동산 이렇게 만든 거예요 그런 설명도 해요음 그럴 수 있죠 어 그러니까 왜냐면 집을 천만 명이 집을 사서 집값을 올리는게 아니거든요 특정 아파트 단지에서 집이 한 열차만 거래되면 그 집값이 그냥 올라가서 그 아파트 전체가 다 30억짜리
(51:42) 아파트들이 되는 거지 뭐 천 세대가 다 천 세대가 거래되고 나야 아 드디어 다 됐고 손 박김이 끝났으니 이제는 30억 되구나 이게 아니라 1천세대 중에 한 한 50세대 30억에 거래되면 그게 다 그냥 30억 아파트가 되는 거니까 앞으로도 그런 식으로 오르겠죠 왜냐면 왜냐면 내려야 되는데 내릴 때는 급하게 사정이 있는데 아우이 조금만 기다리면 30억 있데 어쩔 수 없다 25억에 팔자 이런 식으로 팔아야 되는데음 그렇게 팔 이유가 언제 생길까 약간 그 그런게 있거든요 이게 우리나라의 집값이 하면은 예 집 아파트 값이 아니고 집값 이라고 하면은 사실은이 됐던 뭐가 됐던간에 높다고 안 나와요 예 뭐 빌라나 이런 다가구나 이런 것들이 높지 않기 때문에 서울로 봐도 별로 높진 않아요 집값이 하면요 어 아파트 값이라고 하면 소대 좀 높을 수가 있죠 그런데 사람들이 그 많은 집중해 아파티 솔림 현상이 계속 되면은 요쪽에 가격이
(52:46) 올라가는 그런 어 트렌드도 사실은 어 그런 올라가는 곳이 계속 올라가는 그런 영향 미치지 않나 이제 문제는 팔때 팔 수 있느냐 사람들이 받아 줄 사람이 있겠느냐 과연 팔 때 그 팔 팔 때도 계속 높은 가격을 더 사 줘야 될 텐데 누군가 그 내가 팔 때 누군가 사 주기만 하면 되는 건데 문제는 매물이 한꺼번에 쏟아지는 일이 벌어지면 그때는 이제 문제가 되는 거죠 맞 그래서 22년 그 훅 떨어질 때도 딱 그런 거죠 그때는 이제 역전 세난 때문에음 집중 팔아야 될 사람이 갑자기 많이 생긴 거죠 다 같이 던졌다가 다 같이 떨어진 거 그런 어떤 다 같이 팔아야 되는 그런 시기들이 오면은 분명히 떨어질 수밖에 없는 거고 뭐 뭘까 생각해 보면 부채가 목에 차서 다 같이 떨어지는 때는 아닐 거 같고 말씀하신 대로 부채는 컨트롤이 된다고 하니까 다만 전화 이제 안 대표까지 나중 집을 사서 살다가 다같이 늙 가는 저는 제 집을 몇 언제 팔까요 언제 팔 거 같습니까 비슷하지
(53:49) 않을까요 사람마다 비슷할 슷 비슷했죠 일부는 돈 필요하면 빨리 팔기도 하겠으나음 더 이상 이제 큰집 필요 없어 작은 집으로 가야겠다 비 그요 세대는 비슷할 때 팔 거라고요 근데 그 요것도 설문 조사가 있는데 정확한 퍼센티지는 모르겠는데 그 나이가 많으신 분들 집을 갖고 있는 분들한테 이제 철문 조사를 했었죠 했는데 내 집에서 죽고 싶다 내 집에서 생을 마감하고 싶다 이게 많아요 저도 저도 그럴 거 같아 그러니까 결국은 상 상속이 되 상속이 되면서 집을 팔리는 건데 예 그래서 저도 요때 팔 팔고 그러면이 파는 것만 따지면 이제 점점 사망 많아질수록 집값은 하방 압력을 받을 텐데 팔고 국가로 환수되는게 아니잖아요 내려온다고 돈이 일부는 세금으로 나가고 뭐이이 사람들이 돈을 어떻게 쓰느냐 또 집을 살거다 그렇죠 근데 보면은 상속세로 나가기 때문에 나가기 때문에 적은 돈이 내려오자아요 시 값은 떨어질거다 왜냐면 그리고이 상속을 받은 사람 중에 사업하는 사람도 있고 뭐 여러 가지 사람 주식 투자하는 사람도 있고 이러는데 근데 또 생각해 볼 분은 예를 들어서
(54:53) 5억이 상속으로 돼요 그럼이 사람이 지부 살적에 5억에 레버리지 를 대출을 발생시킨다고 그렇기 때문에 10억 집을 팔아서 5억에 상속을 했는데 다시 10억 집을 할 수도 있는 거예요음 굉장히 복잡한 그니까 돌아가시는 분들이 많기 때문에 집값이 떨어진다라고 하는 거는 상속과 뭐 그면 그 전에 증여 왜냐면 지금 우리나라의 그 노인 빈곤률이 높긴 하지만 노인분들이 양극화가 굉장히 크게 돼 있는 거예요 사실은 음음 굉장히 자산가들도 많거든요 뭐 누군가 뭐 8년생 개띠 그렇게 부 자라더라도 있는데 그래서 굉장히 자상 가인 지금 7 80대의 노인분들의 그 돈들 묶여 있는 돈들 일본이 이게 계속 묶여 있어서 되게 힘들었거든요 예 우리나라도 이게 계속 묶 우리나라는 또 수명이 또 길어 가지고 이게 계속 묶여 있을텐데 어쨌든 이게 흘러 내려왔을 적이 어떻게 되느냐음 이것은 말씀하신 대로 어 내 집을 언제 팔 거야 그러면은 나 여기서 생을 마감할 거야라고 하면은 돌아가고 나 돌아가시고 나서야 요게 팔릴 텐데 그때에 되게 장기적인
(55:57) 얘기를 말씀을 드리는 거예요 그러면은 그게 매도가 나오는 거 그러면 내려와서이 사람들이 뭐 집을 사는 거 복합적으로 생각을 해 봐야죠 장기적으로 장기적으로 생각하면 그죠 그렇게 생각하면 그게 진짜 중요한 거 지금까지의 부동산은 하여튼 어쨌든 우효 곡절 끝 때라도 계속 올라갔 아아네 그게 이제 사는 세대 30대 40대 50대 인구 계는 세대가 있었는데 파는 세대 60대 70대 다 인구가 많아 많았기 때문에 받아낼 수 있었고 야 받아 내도 모자라 그러니까 더 계속 지어야 됐 음 그죠 예 다 늙 다 같이 늙었어요 이제는 매 노 노인들이 쏟아내는 집의 숫자보다음 이제 그 집을 수요하는 세 세대 숫자가 가구든 인구는 적을 테니 맞아 태원 대가 또 태어나는 사람 더 적고도 적게 하고 그러니까 물리적으로 집들이 막 아이스크림처럼 녹아서 부서지지 않는 한 이제는 돌아가시는 분이 두채 세채 쏟아진 걸 이제 젊은 세대가 그거 를 받아내야 되니까 새로 집지을 이유도 없고 집이 남지 않을까
(57:01) 하는 그렇죠 그러니까 그래서 사실은 아까 전에 말씀하신게 집을 내 집을 누가 사 주느냐가 중요하잖아요 그 반대로네 이거 너무 비싸지 않아하는 집이 이걸 누가 사 갈까를 고민하는게 아니고음 맞아 덜 싼 집들 합리적인 가격인 거 같은 이게 내 주거비로 내 월급 대비 합리적으로 어이 정도면은 우리나라 평균 소득이 얼마고 막 계산해 봐요 평균 소득이 얼마고 정도 면은 사람들이 어포더블 하구만 하면서 사는이 집이 오히려 팔릴까 시간이 지날수록 걱정이 되는 거예요 오히려음 돈은 상속도 되게 연극하자아요 사실은 솔직히 그렇잖아요 상속 상속이 말로 정말 극할 거라고요 증여도 극한데뷔 막 원리라는 집 뭐 아파트가 60억에 거래됐다 이러면은 이미 약간 딴 세상 같아 그러니까 무슨 예전에 한남 뭐 한남동이 이런 연예인들이
(58:07) 무슨 청남동 한강 100억에 팔렸다 이러면은 딴 세상 같잖아요 그러면 저거 집값이 오르든 말든 상관 없는 그런 것처럼 보이잖아요 이제 반포가 약간 그런 느낌이나요 60억 뭐 왜냐면 직전 거래가 55억이었는데 다음 거리 60억이 돼버렸어요음 보통 평균적인 사람들이 사는 집이라면 예거 55억 56억 거래가데 단위가 5억 단위야 올는 거래 모르고 사시는 거 사시고 파시는 거 같아 그 그러면은 이제 저기는 약간 다른 세상이구나 이런 느낌이 좀 들잖아요 그런 범위가 좀 넓어질 수도 있죠 그래서 사실은 이거는 조금 뭐 극단적인 얘기일 수도 있는데 집값에 잡는 정책 이런 걸로 봐도 그 그런 것들이 오르게 냅두는게 차라리 그거 그 아예 아예 포커스의 대상이 아니야 거기는 그냥 오르든 말 차라리 그 그 냅 두는게음여 공 수요 공급 측면에서 봐도음 더 많은 국민들이 사는 집은 어 오히려 안정적이 될 수도
(59:11) 있는 뭐 100억이 사든 150원이 되든 상관 뭐 그렇게 될 수도 있다라고 봅니다 그래서 지금 어쨌든 그 제가 말씀드린 거를 큰 큰 한 단화로 보면 결국은 양극화 든요 예음 양극화가 그 큰 틀에서 보면은 상속이나 뭐 뭐 말씀 말씀하신 뭐 노인들의 뭐 매도 이런 걸 봤을 적에도 양극화가 심화된다는 결론이 조금 더 강하게 오고 그거를 어떻게 좀 어쨌든 국민들의 박탈감이나 뭐 분배나 이런 고민을 안 할 수 없으니까 어떻게 조금 뭐 완화를 시켜 주냐 요거는 고민을 해 볼 부분이죠 저희 채팅창에 하루카상이라는 분이 계속 우리 동네는 마이너스라 그요 계속 마이스 동네도 있겠죠 지방도 있고 어 경기 북 경기 북부도 있고요 인천에 뭐 이런데도 있고음 서울은 마이너스까지 뭐 거의 없는 거 같은데네 거 그래서 이것도 일종에 연극한편
(1:00:15) 집값으로 보면은 아까 말씀드린 그런 차원에서 길게 보면 양극화돼 갭은 줄어들었다 넓어졌다 줄어들다 넓어졌다 할 거예요 예를 들어서 내가 제가 내년에 서울에 물량이 많다고 했는데 음 뭐 경기도나 인천은 적거든요 그러면은 뭐 좀 따라붙을 수도 있죠 항상 오르는 것만 오르는 건 아니에 이거는 좀 사람 착각할 수 있는데 개분 좁혀집니다 좁혀지는 다시 벌어지니까 문제 건데 예 계속 벌어지기 하지 않돼 그래서 그 그분 그분도 기다리시면 오른다고 아 동네네 그 그 동네도 아 그럼 그럼 시간의 시간의 문제죠음 그래서 뭐 사실 가게 부채 이런 얘기도 들 말씀 많는데 지금 준비하려다가 부족할 것 같지 않는데 가계 부채는 뭐 어떤게 문제 그냥 말로 한번 해봐 주세요 그니까 간단히 말하면은 가게 부채는 문제죠 가부제 큰 것도 문제고이 금융당국의 이창용 송지나 이런 분들이 말씀하시는 것도 옳은 말씀을 하시죠 하고 정착 방도 좋은데 어 약간 그거를 뭐 많은 뭐 유튜버나 뭐 뭐 애널리스트 뭐 튼 이런 분들이 과장되게 공포를 조장하는 부분은
(1:01:19) 있다고 봐요 충분히 아주 있다 보고 그다음에음 규모가 큰 거랑 위험한 거랑은 약간 별개로 볼 필요가 있다음 음 규모가 큰 건 맞지만음 어 약간 저는 그 가계 그렇죠 가계 부채가 큰 거에 그다음에 거기에 원리금 상황 이런 거에 우리나라는 어 조금 다른 속성을 보일 수도 있고 그다음에 제가 되게 놀라웠던 부분 중에 하나가 그 예를 들어서 은행에 미국 같은 경우에도 은행에 이게 안전한지 지금 시스템상에서 안전한지를 보면 스트레스 테스트라 걸 하잖아요 무슨 어 it 서비스를 할 적에도 뭐 디도스 공격 막 해가고 서버 뻗는 안 뻗지 막 스트레스 테스트라는 걸 하잖아요 저는 22년 도에 우리나라의 어떤 가게 부채가 어 자연스럽게 스트레스 테스를 받지 않았나라는 생각을 돼요 무슨 말이냐면 2022년에 무슨 일이 있었냐면 금리가 두 배가 올랐어요 레고랜드 사 그러니까 고금리 사태랑 레고랜드 사태 겹칠 적에 딱 진짜 금리가 2% 후반에서 5% 중후반까지 올랐거든요 말 그대로 두 배가 올랐어요 거기다가 변동 금리가 많은 상황이었어요 그때 그다음에 이제
(1:02:20) 부랴부랴 고정 금리를 늘린 거고 변동 금리가 많은 상황에서 금리가 두 배가 올랐어요음 그리고 자산 가격이 30% 떨어졌어요 집값이 엄청 떨어졌잖아네 그래서 그 금리가 두 배가 오르고 변동 금리에가 자산이 30% 떨어졌는데 만약 근데 어 우리나라 가게 부채 때문에 망할 거다는 얘기는 그 전부터 계속 나왔거든요 예 그러면 이때 망했어야 돼요 그 사람들이 그 사람 2018년 19년부터 가게 대출 때문에 망할 거라고 했던 폭탄이 떨어지면 큰일 날 거라고 했던 그 사람들의 이론이 맞았다고 하면은 우리나라는 2022년에 망했어야 돼요 놀라운 거는 이때 가게 부채가 흔들리지도 않았거든요음 그러니까 연체율이 막 엄청나게 폭등을 해서 위험했다 그나음 회수가 안 돼서 대출을 못 갚는 사람들 너무 많아 가지고 문제가 됐다거나 전혀 안 그랬어요네 버텼어요 되게 놀랍더라고요음 그 이유는 뭐 놀란 건 둘째 짓고 그 이후를 그냥 분석해 보면은 우리나라는 대출의 상당 부분이 일 고소득자음 고소득자의 대출이 굉장히 비중이 높고요음 그리고 ltv
(1:03:26) 뭐 그런 규제도 꽤 강했죠 왜냐면은 그때만 해도 막 15억 이상은 대출이 나가지도 않고 예 그다음에 나간다고 해도 뭐 얼마까지 ltv 20% 해주고 대출에 대해서 굉장히 깐깐하다고 우리나라가 그래서 그렇게 무무 막 무분별하게 대충 나가지도 않았고요 크기만 한 거예요 그 큰 이유는 역사적으로 되게 길게 있어요 그러니까 70년대부터 집을 엄청 지우면 그걸 다 개인들이 사라고 사라고 대출받아서 사라고 했으니까 그때부터 가게 부채가 엄청 큰 거고요 거기다가 전세자 뭐 임도 대출 받았어요 이렇게 해서 하니까 구조적으로 커진 거고 집을 국가가 많이 소유하고 기업들이 많이 소유했으며 그냥 기업 부채랑 국가 부채가 컸던 거예요 지금은 집을 개인들이 갖고 있으니까 개인 부채가 큰 거고요 근데 이제 그런 측면은 있는 거 같다 이창용 송재도 그때 예전에 기자회에서 무슨 얘기 했었냐 가게 부채 가계의 자산 중에 그 부동산과 관련된 부채가 커지는 그 비중이 지금 높다는 건데 그게 높으면 말씀하셨던 대로 이게 되게 위험한 부채라는 잘 모르겠 퀘스천 있습니다만
(1:04:29) 그 부채가 크잖아요 그러면 사람들이 결국 그 말은 부동산 자산이 내 자산 중에 너무 큰 비중을 차지하고 있다는 뜻이니까 맞아 부동산이 꺼지면 꺼질 수 온 나라한 난리가 나 부동산 하면 가격 떨어지면 날라 지금 올라가도 문제지만 떨어져도 난리납니다 그러니까 그럼 다시 야 그냥 비네스 집사 이런 정책이 다시 쓱 나와요 그래서 절대 안 떨어뜨리는 걸 용인하지 않습니다 그래서 이게 부동산 정책이 진짜 안정적이 되려면 가게 부채 비중이 좀 부동산에 관련된 포트폴리오가 줄어야 조금 떨어지거나 뭐 해도 사람들이 버틸 수가 있지 전부 다 부동산에 물려 있는데네 맞아요 맞아요 그러니까 이거는 악순환으로 갈 수밖에 없다 청년 총제 시각으로는 이건 절대이 메커니즘에서 못 벗어난다는 거예요 저는 그거에 대해서는 절대적으로 동의해요 뭐 이창 뭐 제가 뭐 평가하기도 애매할 정도로 굉장히 똑똑하신 분이잖아요 그니까 다 동의해요 다 동의하고 말씀하신 것도 동의해요데 이게 뭐 짧게 봐도 1970년대부터 우리나라가 집을 엄청나게 공급할 때부터 그다음에 조금
(1:05:33) 더 짧게 보면은 2000년대 초반부터 우리나라가 그 모기지를 엄청나게 막 이렇게 공급했던 그때부터 해 가지고 예 수십년간 그냥 이렇게 돼 버린 거예요음 이걸 깰 수가 없어요 그래서 진짜 장기적으로 정말 장기적인 어떤 로드맵을 가지고 지금 아마 그렇게 하시는 걸 거예요 그렇게 하시는 거예요 총량제도 그렇고 그래서 그거는 동의해요 근데 이걸 가지고 방침에 대해 동의하지 않는다는게 아니고 이걸 가지고 너무 야 우리나라 가게 대출이 엄청 크니까 우리나라는 엄청 위험한 상황이야 이렇게 생각한다거나 이렇게 얘기 누군가 이렇게 얘기한다거나 이게 폭발해 갖고 우리나라는 가게 부치 때문에 성장을 못 할 거야 뭐 가계부채 때문에 뭐이 모든 기승전 가게 부채 얘기를 생각보다 많은 사람들이 하고 증권과 애널리스트 분들도 그 얘기를 하는데 저는 약간 뭐 뭐 하여튼 어 증권과 에너리스 분들 되게 좀 불만이 있는게 계속 가게 부채 얘기들이 문제를 막 2018년 19년 계속 얘기를 했어요 근데 정작 2020년 21년 22년도 부동산 PF 어 기업 부채를 무분별하게 내준 건 증권사 아아 그
(1:06:38) 그러니까 우리나라가 역사적으로 부채나 이런 문제 때문에 위기와 위기 근처까지 갔던 거는 다 기업 부채 때문이에요 가게 부채 때문에 흔들린 적이 단 한 번도 없어요 카드 대란 정도 그때 그건 또 가계 부채라고 하게 내면 증권사가 가계 부채에 대해서 위험 신호를내는 여러 이유 중에 하나는 어 증권사는 그 금리가 자꾸 내려가야 내려가야 채권 운용으로 돈을 벌 수 있는 구조라서음 내심으로는 금리 낮추자는 얘기를 365일 하고 싶은 기관이에요음 어 물론 이제 그게 리서치와는 파이어월이 있어야 되긴 하지만음 어 그런데 금리 낮추자는 얘기를 하려면 가게 부채 올라가고 있어요 뭐 그렇게음 하는 수밖에 없겠지 뭐 아무튼 뭐 혹시 오해를 하실까 봐 제가 가격 부채를 더 많이 늘려도 된다 이런 얘기가 아니고 지금 위험하지 않다 너무 걱정하시고음 너무 이것 때문에 망할 것 같지 생각하시면 생각보다 좀 많거든요 우리나라 가격 부체 때문에 너무 휘청휘청 청할 수 있다 근데 그거 아니다네 근데 크니까 점차 줄여나가 그 비중을 퍼센트를 주러
(1:07:43) 나가야 된다 요건 오케 알겠습니다 하여튼 오늘 김건 대표님 말씀은 올해는 살짝 주춤할 수 있다음 어 내년 에는 좀 좋아질 수 있다 그니까 오늘 사서 내년에 팔거나 이런 사람이 있는게 아니라서네 자 자 그러면 이제 좀 내려가는 거 기다려도 좋습니까음는 궁금함 일 텐데 꼭 그렇지는 않을지도 몰라 그러니까 슬슬 알아보러 다니는 건 계속 해라는 얘기 같아요 그러니 야 이제이 가격에이 집을 사야 되니 참음 이런 생각을 하지만 집을 알아보러 다닌다는 건 그만큼 돈 있으시다는 거 아닙니까 사실 알아보지도 않습니다 그러니 뭐 이제 그렇게 되는 거겠죠 근데 오늘 나온 얘기 중에 뭐 굳이 그 정부가 부동산 부양책이 해서 내놓는게 있 있는 경우들이 있죠 있죠 빚내서 집사라 하면서 대출 완화음 내지는
(1:08:48) 세금 깎아 줄게 집사라 하는 경우가 부동산 부양책이라고 우리는 생각하지만네 그게 근본적으로 부동산 안정 책이에요 그 본질을 우리가 이해해야 되는게음 집값이 보통 이제 내려갈 때 그런 정 그런 정책을 내놓는데 이렇게 내려갈 때 그런 정책을 내놓지 않으면음 부동산 가격이야 조금 더 내려갈 수는 있겠죠 그러나 부동산 경기가 다 얼어붙어서음 착공이 안 되고 진도가 안 나가고 아무런 부동산 프로젝트가 올 톱이 돼요 아 뭐 그건 그거는 뭐 있는데 음 그러면 계속 그 그 이후에는 곧바로 공급부족으로 바로바로 이어지자아요 그러니까 요거 요대로 내비두면 진짜 공급 부족이 되겠구나 싶을 때 내놓는 정책이기도 하기 때문에 성격이 양면이 다 있어서음 그거에 그게 없으면 부동산이 안정 그래서 저는 부동산은 그냥 어느 나라든지 불패 이유는 부동산이 오르다가 내려가기 시작하면 부동산이
(1:09:53) 공급이 안 될테니까 잠시 후에는 또 올라갈 거고 물론 항상 오르지는 않겠으나 내버려 정부가 아무런 신경 안 쓰고 내버려 둬도 계속 이렇게 우상향 하거나 신경 안 쓰면 더 올라간다음 뭐 그 그런 거 같더군요 왜 내가 괜히 막판에 정리한답시고 욕 먹을 소리를 하는지 모르겠습니다 그때요 너무 많이 몰랐 근데 물론 그런 측면이 있는데 막상 그때 빚내서 하세요 한때 결과적으로 그때 너무 많이 급등을 해서 아주 홍역을 치렀죠 당시에 그래서 그게 물론 그전에 안 오른 거니까 한꺼번에 올라서 그런 겁니다라고 설명할 수 있겠으나 그 이제 막 틈바구니에 있었던 사람 입장에서는 뭐 어떻게 보면 누군가에게는 매우 힘든 시기였다 거죠 그렇죠 그렇죠음 그래서 하여튼 너무 확 부르고 확 내리는 건 하여튼 별로다네 어 맞습니다 그런 거 같습니다네 부동산 얘기하면 왜 이렇게 갑자기 숙여 내는지 모르겠어 대표님 오늘도 좋은 말씀
(1:10:57) 고맙습니다고네 [음악]